Energy Transition Pathways: Insights from Integrated Assessment Models

能源转型途径：综合评估模型的见解

• 批准号: RGPIN-2016-04214
• 负责人: Bahn, Olivier
• 金额: $ 1.75万
• 依托单位: HEC Montréal
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2016-01-01 至 2017-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=614916
• 关键词: Energy; Transition; Pathways; Insights; Integrated

Climate change is one of the greatest environmental challenges facing our planet in the foreseeable future. Strategies for dealing with climate change enter three categories. Mitigation aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, e.g., by substituting fossil fuel by renewables in energy systems. Adaptation aims to limit the impact of climate change without limiting climate change itself, e.g., by building sea walls to defend against rising seas. Finally, climate geoengineering corresponds to a deliberate modification of the climate system, e.g., the injection of sulfur in the stratosphere to reduce incoming solar radiation. International climate agreements are calling for a reduction in GHG emissions, but the latter are still increasing globally. Alternative strategies should therefore be considered, despite their associated uncertainties (e.g., in terms of effectiveness for adaptation or side effects for climate geoengineering). The general objective of this research is to assess how adaptation and climate geoengineering may affect the transition towards cleaner energy systems needed to curb GHG emissions. The methodology relies on integrated assessment modelling to determine optimal climate policies. This approach combines, within a mathematical model, key elements of the economic and biophysical systems, elements that are underlying the climate change phenomenon. This research will contribute to the development of integrated assessment models (IAMs) by combining detailed representations of the energy sector (to explicit GHG abatement options) with the modeling of adaptation and geoengineering measures. A specific attention will be given to the many uncertainties surrounding the climate change issue. By performing climate policy analyses for Canada and other world regions, this research will also contribute to the assessment of possible climate change strategies. Research incorporating mitigation, adaptation and climate geoengineering options into IAMs is uncommon. The interest of this research is first to contribute to an IAM literature on combining these strategies that is still in its infancy. As such, this research will be of interest to the entire integrated assessment community, which includes Environment Canada and Natural Resources Canada. The policy analyses proposed in this research will also benefit Canadian policy makers and Canadian companies. Indeed, on the one hand, it will help Canadian policy makers design sound climate policies and better identify transition pathways toward more sustainable energy futures. On the other hand, this research will provide the many Canadian companies that are active in the nation’s natural resources sector with different analyses of possible energy futures. This will contribute to their understanding of their business environment and help them successfully compete in changing energy markets.

气候变化是我们星球在可预见的未来面临的最大环境挑战之一。应对气候变化的战略分为三类。缓解旨在减少温室气体排放，例如，通过在能源系统中用可再生能源取代化石燃料。适应旨在限制气候变化的影响，而不限制气候变化本身，例如，来抵御海平面上升最后，气候地球工程相当于对气候系统的有意修改，例如，向平流层注入硫以减少太阳辐射。国际气候协定呼吁减少温室气体排放，但全球温室气体排放量仍在增加。因此，尽管存在相关的不确定性（例如，在适应的有效性或气候地球工程的副作用方面）。这项研究的总体目标是评估适应和气候地球工程可能如何影响向遏制温室气体排放所需的清洁能源系统过渡。该方法依靠综合评估模型来确定最佳气候政策。这种方法在一个数学模型中结合了经济和生物物理系统的关键要素，这些要素是气候变化现象的基础。这项研究将有助于综合评估模型（IAM）的发展相结合的能源部门（明确的温室气体减排方案）与适应和地球工程措施的建模的详细说明。将特别注意围绕气候变化问题的许多不确定因素。通过对加拿大和世界其他地区的气候政策进行分析，这项研究还将有助于评估可能的气候变化战略。将减缓、适应和气候地球工程备选办法纳入综合农业措施的研究并不多见。这项研究的兴趣是第一个贡献的IAM文献结合这些战略，仍处于起步阶段。因此，这项研究将引起整个综合评估界的兴趣，其中包括加拿大环境部和加拿大自然资源部。本研究提出的政策分析也将使加拿大政策制定者和加拿大公司受益。事实上，一方面，它将帮助加拿大决策者设计合理的气候政策，更好地确定向更可持续的能源未来过渡的途径。另一方面，这项研究将为许多活跃在该国自然资源部门的加拿大公司提供对可能的能源未来的不同分析。这将有助于他们了解他们的商业环境，并帮助他们在不断变化的能源市场中成功竞争。