Quantitative modelling for health care policy planning and resource allocation

我的研究重点是医疗保健行业的需求和能力建模以及资源分配问题。我特别关注的是，在卫生保健领域，人们倾向于各自为政。例如，决策者为手术室制定时间表，很少或根本没有考虑这对恢复室和病房的影响。医院独立于养老院、家庭护理和社区（包括初级保健医生）做出业务决策。这一体系效率低下和繁琐也不足为奇。有限的财政资源应该如何分配？稀缺的人力资源应该如何分配？我的研究主要集中在整个医疗保健系统的护理协调问题。我一直致力于为各级决策者（医院、机构、卫生区域、政府等）提供他们所需的量化工具，以支持数据驱动的决策和能力规划。这项拨款将支持的主要项目将围绕政策和系统层面的战略医疗保健决策。特别是，我们开发了一个为老年人提供住家能力的模型，该模型反映了医院、康复中心和长期护理对整个系统的影响。该模型允许（安大略省）政策制定者评估拟议的政策举措的潜在影响。我们计划将其扩展到初级保健设计和精神卫生部门。我们目前的研究包括帮助规划者确定加拿大在未来10-20年需要的临床工作者数量的模型。我们已经为心脏外科医生做了这个，也为骨科医生和家庭医生做了一些工作。这项研究将包括评估不同的“护理模式”，在这种模式下，病人由临床团队治疗，而不是总是由医生治疗。这些努力对于在未来建立一个可持续的系统至关重要。最后，我们将开发模型，以了解医院有效运作所需的实际能力。

My research focus is on demand and capacity modeling and resource allocation issues in the health care industry. I am particularly concerned about the tendency in health care to work in independent silos of activity. For example, decision makers construct schedules for the operating rooms with little or no consideration of the impact this has on recovery rooms and wards. Hospitals make operational decisions independent from nursing homes, home care and the community including primary care physicians. It is little wonder that the system is inefficient and cumbersome. How should limited financial resources be distributed? How should scarce human resources be allocated? My research focuses primarily on the issues of care coordination across the healthcare system. I have been working to provide decision makers at all levels (hospital, institution, health region, government, etc.) with the quantitative tools that they require to support data-driven decision making and capacity planning.The primary projects that will be supported by this grant will revolve around strategic healthcare decision making at the policy and system level. In particular, we have developed a model for providing capacity for seniors to stay in the homes that reflects the impact on the whole system from hospitals, rehab and long term care. The model allows (Ontario) policy makers to evaluate the potential impact of proposed policy initiatives. We plan to extend this to primary care design and to mental health sectors. Our current research includes models to help planners determine the number of clinical workers that Canada will require in the next 10-20 years. We have done this for cardiac surgeons, and have done some work on orthopaedic surgeons and family physicians. The research will involve evaluating different "models of care" where patients are treated by clinical teams instead of always by a physician. These efforts are essential to build a sustainable system into the future. Finally, we will develop models to understand the real capacity that hospitals require to function effectively.