Quantitative modelling for Capacity Planning in Mental Health and Addictions With a Focus on Dementia

以痴呆症为重点的心理健康和成瘾能力规划的定量建模

• 批准号: RGPIN-2019-06926
• 负责人: Carter, Michael
• 金额: $ 2.26万
• 依托单位: University of Toronto
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=759634
• 关键词: Quantitative; modelling; Capacity; Planning; Mental

My 2019-2024 research program focuses on developing operations research decision support models supporting policy makers and planners in the complex Mental Health and Addictions (MH&A) sector. Across Canada, MH&A services are delivered by a complex web of provincially funded public and private services. Demand is growing, particularly around dementia where demand is forecasted to grow 66% by 2031, and the relationship between supply and demand is poorly understood. Funding is limited and often allocated reactively, and without analysis as to whether that funding is contributing to improvements to service delivery in the sector. In addition, the healthcare sector operates in information silos with limited integration of services, and MH&A policies do not consider integration points with the broader health sector. My program's short-term research focus will be on capacity planning models for community based mental health services with a focus on dementia, including impacts on acute and chronic care capacity. The long-term focus will expand to include broader MH&A sector considerations. Over the past 20-30 years operations research has become entrenched in the acute care health care system and is growing in influence in the community and long-term care sectors. My past and present research programs have been key drivers in this change. The vision of this research program is to drive similar long-term development of capacity planning models in MH&A. I intend to use System Dynamics (SD) heavily within this research program for strategic policy level decision making. Through the work of myself and other colleagues, SD is now a proven tool for modeling health system complexities in acute and chronic care environments and in this program will be extended to MH&A. I am expecting two key contributions from this work: 1.Extending the small body of academic literature, demonstrating the use of SD as a viable tool for creating generic models in MH&A. 2.Demonstrating the ability to model the complexities of the MH&A sector. My expectation is that this program will also require tactical and operational level models, using Discrete Event Simulation and Integer Programming, to optimize policy level decisions for specific applications. I expect to fund one PhD student, and post-doctoral student, and two master level students through this grant. An additional PhD student will also be working within this program, funded by a government agency.

我的2019-2024研究计划的重点是开发运筹学决策支持模型，支持复杂的心理健康和成瘾（MH&A）部门的政策制定者和规划者。在加拿大各地，MH&A服务由一个由省级资助的公共和私人服务组成的复杂网络提供。需求正在增长，特别是在痴呆症方面，预计到2031年需求将增长66%，而供需之间的关系却知之甚少。资金有限，而且往往是被动分配的，而且没有分析这些资金是否有助于改善该部门的服务提供。此外，医疗保健部门在信息孤岛中运作，服务整合有限，MH&A政策没有考虑与更广泛的卫生部门的整合点。 我的计划的短期研究重点将是基于社区的精神卫生服务的能力规划模型，重点是痴呆症，包括对急性和慢性护理能力的影响。长期重点将扩大到包括更广泛的MH&A行业考虑。 在过去的20-30年中，运筹学已经在急性护理卫生保健系统中根深蒂固，并且在社区和长期护理部门的影响力越来越大。我过去和现在的研究项目是这一变化的关键驱动力。该研究计划的愿景是推动MH&A容量规划模型的类似长期发展。 我打算在这个研究项目中大量使用系统动力学（SD）来进行战略政策层面的决策。通过我自己和其他同事的工作，SD现在是一个成熟的工具，用于模拟急性和慢性护理环境中的卫生系统复杂性，在这个项目中将扩展到MH&A。我期待这项工作的两个关键贡献：1.扩展学术文献的小主体，展示使用SD作为一个可行的工具，在MH&A中创建通用模型。2.展示建模MH&A行业复杂性的能力。 我的期望是，该计划还将需要战术和作战级别的模型，使用离散事件模拟和可编程逻辑，以优化特定应用的政策级别的决策。 我希望通过这笔赠款资助一名博士生、一名博士后和两名硕士生。另外一名博士生也将在这个项目中工作，由政府机构资助。