Quantitative modelling for health care policy planning and resource allocation

医疗保健政策规划和资源分配的定量建模

• 批准号: RGPIN-2018-06685
• 负责人: Carter, Michael
• 金额: $ 1.89万
• 依托单位: University of Toronto
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2018-01-01 至 2019-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=646936
• 关键词: Quantitative; modelling; health; care; policy

My research focus is on demand and capacity modeling and resource allocation issues in the health care industry. I am particularly concerned about the tendency in health care to work in independent silos of activity. For example, decision makers construct schedules for the operating rooms with little or no consideration of the impact this has on recovery rooms and wards. Hospitals make operational decisions independent from nursing homes, home care and the community including primary care physicians. It is little wonder that the system is inefficient and cumbersome. How should limited financial resources be distributed? How should scarce human resources be allocated? My research focuses primarily on the issues of care coordination across the healthcare system. I have been working to provide decision makers at all levels (hospital, institution, health region, government, etc.) with the quantitative tools that they require to support data-driven decision making and capacity planning.***The primary projects that will be supported by this grant will revolve around strategic healthcare decision making at the policy and system level. Current projects under this umbrella include working with the Ontario Ministry of Health on analyzing the causes of hospital discharge delays and creating computer models to evaluate the impact of various solutions on hospital capacity, ED wait times, long term care waits, home care, primary care, rehab and family care-givers. We have developed a large health system planning model for evaluating future demand and capacity. The model allows (Ontario) policy makers to evaluate the potential impact of proposed policy initiatives. Our current research includes models to help planners determine the number of clinical workers that Canada will require in the next 10-20 years. These efforts are essential to build a sustainable system into the future. Finally, we have developed and implemented models to help hospitals understand the real capacity required to function effectively.

我的研究重点是医疗保健行业的需求和能力建模以及资源分配问题。我特别担心医疗保健领域以独立的活动方式开展工作的趋势。例如，决策者在制定手术室时间表时很少或根本不考虑这对康复室和病房的影响。医院独立于疗养院、家庭护理和社区（包括初级保健医生）做出运营决策。毫无疑问，该系统效率低下且繁琐。有限的财政资源该如何分配？稀缺的人力资源该如何配置？我的研究主要集中在整个医疗保健系统的护理协调问题。我一直致力于为各级决策者（医院、机构、卫生区域、政府等）提供支持数据驱动决策和能力规划所需的定量工具。***这笔赠款将支持的主要项目将围绕政策和系统层面的战略医疗决策。该框架下目前的项目包括与安大略省卫生部合作，分析出院延误的原因，并创建计算机模型来评估各种解决方案对医院容量、急诊等待时间、长期护理等待、家庭护理、初级护理、康复和家庭护理人员的影响。我们开发了一个大型卫生系统规划模型，用于评估未来的需求和能力。该模型允许（安大略省）政策制定者评估拟议政策举措的潜在影响。我们当前的研究包括帮助规划者确定加拿大未来 10-20 年所需临床工作人员数量的模型。这些努力对于构建未来的可持续系统至关重要。最后，我们开发并实施了模型来帮助医院了解有效运作所需的实际能力。