A Novel Probabilistic Flood Modelling Framework to Improve Infrastructure Resilience

提高基础设施弹性的新型概率洪水建模框架

• 批准号: 517998-2017
• 负责人: Najafi, MohammadReza
• 金额: $ 1.82万
• 依托单位: University of Western Ontario
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Engage Grants Program
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2017-01-01 至 2018-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=639850
• 关键词: Novel; Probabilistic; Flood; Modelling; Framework

Flooding, as a major natural disaster worldwide, threatens human lives and causes billions of dollars in damageeach year. Accurate flood risk assessment, through proper representation of flood hazard, vulnerability andexposure, is crucial for the design, planning and management of societies and infrastructure. This project willdevelop a novel probabilistic flood modelling framework for accurate and precise estimation of floodcharacteristics (i.e. flood volume, extent, depth, velocity, time to peak, among others) which, coupled with therisk assessment package developed by RiskLogik, will be used to generate resilience plans for criticalinfrastructure. The proposed framework will provide a single most reliable estimate of flood characteristics thatis suitable for risk and resilience assessment, and will quantify uncertainties in hydrologic and hydrodynamicmodelling, flow hydrographs, parameters, and topographic data. The project will investigate an innovativeextreme value approach that does not require threshold selection for flood estimation, and will propose amulti-objective performance measure for model optimization. The integrated framework (flood modelintegrated with RiskLogik's software) will systematically assess the vulnerability of critical infrastructure toflood risks in Canada and around the globe and evaluate/generate resilience plans. There will be considerableeconomic, social and environmental benefits for municipalities and other stakeholders in Canada and aroundthe globe through the development of flood mitigation strategies using this framework.

洪水作为一种世界性的重大自然灾害，每年威胁着人类的生命，造成数十亿美元的损失。准确的洪水风险评估，通过恰当地表示洪水风险、脆弱性和风险，对于社会和基础设施的设计、规划和管理至关重要。该项目将开发一种新的概率洪水模型框架，用于准确和精确地估计洪水特征(如洪水量、洪水范围、深度、流速、达到峰值的时间等)，与RiskLogik开发的风险评估程序包相结合，将用于为关键基础设施生成复原力计划。拟议的框架将提供适用于风险和复原力评估的洪水特征的单一最可靠估计，并将量化水文和水动力学模型、水流过程线、参数和地形数据中的不确定性。该项目将研究一种创新的极值方法，该方法不需要为洪水估计选择阈值，并将提出用于模型优化的多目标性能度量。综合框架(洪水模型与RiskLogik的软件集成)将系统地评估关键基础设施对加拿大和全球洪水风险的脆弱性，并评估/生成复原力计划。通过使用这一框架制定洪灾缓解战略，将为加拿大和全球的市政当局和其他利益攸关方带来可观的经济、社会和环境效益。