A Novel Probabilistic Flood Modelling Framework to Improve Infrastructure Resilience

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Flooding, as a major natural disaster worldwide, threatens human lives and causes billions of dollars in damageeach year. Accurate flood risk assessment, through proper representation of flood hazard, vulnerability andexposure, is crucial for the design, planning and management of societies and infrastructure. This project willdevelop a novel probabilistic flood modelling framework for accurate and precise estimation of floodcharacteristics (i.e. flood volume, extent, depth, velocity, time to peak, among others) which, coupled with therisk assessment package developed by RiskLogik, will be used to generate resilience plans for criticalinfrastructure. The proposed framework will provide a single most reliable estimate of flood characteristics thatis suitable for risk and resilience assessment, and will quantify uncertainties in hydrologic and hydrodynamicmodelling, flow hydrographs, parameters, and topographic data. The project will investigate an innovativeextreme value approach that does not require threshold selection for flood estimation, and will propose amulti-objective performance measure for model optimization. The integrated framework (flood modelintegrated with RiskLogik's software) will systematically assess the vulnerability of critical infrastructure toflood risks in Canada and around the globe and evaluate/generate resilience plans. There will be considerableeconomic, social and environmental benefits for municipalities and other stakeholders in Canada and aroundthe globe through the development of flood mitigation strategies using this framework.