A Novel Probabilistic Flood Modelling Framework to Improve Infrastructure Resilience

洪水是世界性的重大自然灾害，每年威胁着人类的生命安全，造成的经济损失高达数十亿美元。准确的洪水风险评估，通过适当的代表性洪水的危害，脆弱性和扩展，是至关重要的社会和基础设施的设计，规划和管理。该项目将开发一个新的概率洪水建模框架，用于准确和精确地估计洪水特性（即洪水量，范围，深度，速度，峰值时间等），再加上RiskLogik开发的风险评估包，将用于为关键基础设施制定恢复计划。拟议的框架将提供一个最可靠的洪水特性估计，适合风险和复原力评估，并将量化水文和水动力学建模，流量过程线，参数和地形数据的不确定性。该项目将研究一种创新的极值方法，不需要阈值选择洪水估计，并将提出一个多目标的模型优化性能指标。该综合框架（洪水模型与RiskLogik软件相结合）将系统地评估加拿大和地球仪各地关键基础设施对洪水风险的脆弱性，并评估/制定抗灾计划。通过利用这一框架制定减轻洪灾战略，将为加拿大和地球仪的市政当局和其他利益攸关方带来可观的经济、社会和环境效益。

Flooding, as a major natural disaster worldwide, threatens human lives and causes billions of dollars in damageeach year. Accurate flood risk assessment, through proper representation of flood hazard, vulnerability andexposure, is crucial for the design, planning and management of societies and infrastructure. This project willdevelop a novel probabilistic flood modelling framework for accurate and precise estimation of floodcharacteristics (i.e. flood volume, extent, depth, velocity, time to peak, among others) which, coupled with therisk assessment package developed by RiskLogik, will be used to generate resilience plans for criticalinfrastructure. The proposed framework will provide a single most reliable estimate of flood characteristics thatis suitable for risk and resilience assessment, and will quantify uncertainties in hydrologic and hydrodynamicmodelling, flow hydrographs, parameters, and topographic data. The project will investigate an innovativeextreme value approach that does not require threshold selection for flood estimation, and will propose amulti-objective performance measure for model optimization. The integrated framework (flood modelintegrated with RiskLogik's software) will systematically assess the vulnerability of critical infrastructure toflood risks in Canada and around the globe and evaluate/generate resilience plans. There will be considerableeconomic, social and environmental benefits for municipalities and other stakeholders in Canada and aroundthe globe through the development of flood mitigation strategies using this framework.