Supporting avian conservation in managed forests: Forecasting forest biodiversity under alternate land-use strategies

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The Canadian boreal forest, an area of 480 million hectares, is home to over 200 species of songbirds and waterfowl. Forest harvest operations occur in much of the region, and can have negative consequences on species' habitats. To outperform international competitors, Canadian forest companies must show that their operations address such potential negative impacts, and that their activities are sustainable. Our long-term objective is to support conservation of boreal bird species with empirical research and modelling tools that contribute to forest management and land-use planning for sustainability. Within this 3-year project, we will measure how bird species respond to the landscape changes that occur through forestry activities, such as amount, location, and layout of harvested forest blocks at local, regional, and national extents. Simultaneously, we will measure bird responses to within-block activities designed to minimize or offset local effects. This is achievable because we will build of more than 20 years of data, methodological research, and ecological modelling of birds in the boreal forest. Our models will be built at national extent for general use, but tested and refined in regional case studies. We will build a customized software tool that allows us to simulate possible changes to habitat resulting from different forestry plans, and then predict bird abundance and distribution in response to simulated habitats. This will provide a powerful tool for companies and government agencies to evaluate the costs and benefits of alternate forest plans and management actions to balance competing environmental, social, and economic objectives. Through our partners, are findings will inform policy formation to minimize or offset human-induced population declines of migratory birds, and to protect important habitats for species at risk.