Supporting avian conservation in managed forests: Forecasting forest biodiversity under alternate land-use**strategies

加拿大北方森林面积达4.8亿公顷，是200多种鸣禽和水禽的家园。森林采伐活动发生在该地区的大部分地区，并可能对物种栖息地产生负面影响。为了超越国际竞争对手，加拿大的森林公司必须证明他们的业务解决了这些潜在的负面影响，并且他们的活动是可持续的。我们的长期目标是通过实证研究和建模工具支持北方鸟类物种的保护，这些工具有助于森林管理和土地利用规划的可持续性。在这个为期3年的项目中，我们将测量鸟类物种对森林活动引起的景观变化的反应，例如在地方、区域和国家范围内采伐森林块的数量、位置和布局。同时，我们将测量鸟类对旨在减少或抵消局部影响的块内活动的反应。这是可以实现的，因为我们将建立20多年的数据、方法研究和北方森林鸟类的生态模型。我们的模型将在全国范围内建立，以供普遍使用，但在区域案例研究中进行测试和完善。我们将建立一个定制的软件工具，使我们能够模拟不同的林业计划可能导致的栖息地变化，然后预测鸟类的丰度和分布，以响应模拟的栖息地。这将为公司和政府机构提供一个强有力的工具，以评估替代森林计划和管理行动的成本和效益，以平衡相互竞争的环境、社会和经济目标。通过我们的合作伙伴，我们的研究结果将为政策制定提供信息，以尽量减少或抵消人为导致的候鸟数量下降，并保护濒危物种的重要栖息地。

The Canadian boreal forest, an area of 480 million hectares, is home to over 200 species of songbirds and waterfowl. Forest harvest operations occur in much of the region, and can have negative consequences on species' habitats. To outperform international competitors, Canadian forest companies must show that their operations address such potential negative impacts, and that their activities are sustainable. Our long-term objective is to support conservation of boreal bird species with empirical research and modelling tools that contribute to forest management and land-use planning for sustainability. Within this 3-year project, we will measure how bird species respond to the landscape changes that occur through forestry activities, such as amount, location, and layout of harvested forest blocks at local, regional, and national extents. Simultaneously, we will measure bird responses to within-block activities designed to minimize or offset local effects. This is achievable because we will build of more than 20 years of data, methodological research, and ecological modelling of birds in the boreal forest. Our models will be built at national extent for general use, but tested and refined in regional case studies. We will build a customized software tool that allows us to simulate possible changes to habitat resulting from different forestry plans, and then predict bird abundance and distribution in response to simulated habitats. This will provide a powerful tool for companies and government agencies to evaluate the costs and benefits of alternate forest plans and management actions to balance competing environmental, social, and economic objectives. Through our partners, are findings will inform policy formation to minimize or offset human-induced population declines of migratory birds, and to protect important habitats for species at risk.