Insurable losses due to wildland fire: can spatial models provide useful estimates of risk?

野火对加拿大森林地区的定居点、基础设施和工业构成重大威胁。最近在阿尔伯塔的麦克默里堡发生的大规模疏散和广泛的结构性破坏代表了40亿美元的保险损失。由于气候变暖，以及加拿大森林地区工业的持续发展和人口的增长，这种事件的频率和遭受损失的风险可能会增加。由此产生的损失可能威胁到保险公司的盈利能力，甚至生存能力。评估这些风险的一个常用方法是借助计算机火灾发生和蔓延模型。在加拿大，野火模拟引擎Burn-P3经常用于此目的。我们的合作伙伴Desjardins Groupe d'Assurance Générales（DGAG）有兴趣确定Burn-P3的估计火灾危险地图是否足够可靠，可用于其业务，并关注其在全国范围内的年度预测的可扩展性。本提案旨在评估和比较Burn-P3的可靠性和申请人开发的另一种危险绘图方法。这两种方法将相互比较，并对独立的火灾发生数据在一个大的研究领域在阿比提比-Témiscamingue地区的魁北克，加拿大。还将评估它们的相对计算效率和可扩展性。

Wildland fires pose significant threats to the settlements, infrastructure and industry embedded in Canada's forested lands. The recent mass evacuations and extensive structural damage in Fort McMurray, Alberta represented four billion dollars of insured losses. The frequency of such events and the exposure to losses are likely to increase due to climate warming, and continued industrial development and population growth in forested regions of Canada. The resultant losses could threaten insurance company profitability or even viability. A common method to assess these risks is by means of computer-based models of fire occurrence and spread. In Canada, the wildfire simulation engine Burn-P3 is often used for this purpose. Our partner, Desjardins Groupe d'Assurance Générales (DGAG), is interested to determine if Burn-P3's estimated fire hazard maps are reliable enough for use in their business, and is also concerned about their scalability to annual predictions at national extents. This proposal was developed to seeks to assess and compare the reliability of Burn-P3 and an alternate hazard mapping methodology developed by the applicant. The two methods will be compared against each other and against independent fire-occurrence data over a large study area in the Abitibi-Témiscamingue region of Quebec, Canada. Their relative computational efficiency and scalability will also be assessed.