Modeling Life in the Future Ocean

政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）推动了一系列全球模型的发展，以分析气候变化如何影响我们的环境。这方面的重点是环境参数（温度、pH值等），而到目前为止，关于气候变化如何影响全球范围内地球上的生命的研究还很少。对于陆地系统，已经有了气候变化与土地利用模式相结合可能如何影响未来全球生物多样性的模型，但是对海洋的类似分析仍然缺乏。**海洋为我们提供海产品和许多其他服务，在上个世纪，由于过度开发，鱼类数量严重下降。因此，尽管全球捕捞能力持续增长，但现在海洋供应的海产品比1980年左右的捕捞高峰时期要少。我们钓得更多，收获却更少。更严重的问题是，世界海洋的生产力可能会受到气候变化的严重影响。**现有的为数不多的预测指出，鱼类种类将广泛重新分布，一般是在两极方向，而总体生产力将下降，特别是在热带地区。这些预测主要基于生理约束的建模，但没有考虑生态相互作用、自上而下和自下而上的力量如何影响海产品生产。从本质上讲，目前尚不清楚捕食者和猎物物种的重新分配将如何影响它们的生产力，也不清楚管理相互作用或海洋生产力模式变化的潜在影响。我们从区域生态系统研究中了解到，为了复制一段时间内的人口趋势，我们必须同时考虑所有这些因素；因此，也应该考虑在全局级别上对它们进行建模。**通过这项发现基金的目的是开发和应用一个考虑环境生产力、食物网和渔业影响的全球海洋生态系统模型，并测试关键生态和建模过程的替代假设。该全球模型旨在对未来海产品生产如何受到气候变化的影响以及其他缓解措施成功的可能性提供合理的预测。这项研究的基本主题是解决这样一个问题：未来几代人还会有海鲜和健康的海洋供他们享用吗？

The Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) has sparked the development of an ensemble of global models to analyze how climate change impacts our environment. The focus of this has been on environmental parameters (temperature, pH, etc.) while there up to now has been but little research on how climate change may impact life on earth at the global scale. For terrestrial systems this has been followed up with models for how climate change combined with land use patterns may be impacting future global biodiversity, but similar analysis for the oceans are still wanting. **The oceans supply us with seafood, among many other services, and there have been serious declines in fish populations over the last century due to overexploitation. As a result, the oceans now supply less seafood than they did in the peak fish years around 1980 even though fishing capacity has continued to increase globally. We fish more, but catch less. Adding to the problem is that the productivity of the world ocean may become seriously impacted by climate change. **The few existing predictions point to widespread redistributions of fish species, generally in polar directions, and that overall productivity will decline, especially in the tropic. These projections are based on modeling with mainly physiological constraints but with no considerations for how ecological interactions, top-down and bottom-up forces impact seafood production. In essence, it is not clear how the redistributions of predator and prey species will impact their productivity, nor is the potential impacts of management interactions or changes in ocean productivity patterns. We have learned though from regional ecosystem studies that to replicate population trends over time we have to consider all of these factors in concert; hence they should also be considered for modeling at the global level. **It is the intention through this Discovery Grant to develop and apply an ecosystem model of the global ocean that considers environmental productivity, food web and fisheries effects, and to test alternative hypotheses for key ecological and modeling processes. The global model is designed to provide plausible predictions for how future seafood production may be impacted by climate change and of the likelihood that alternative mitigation measures may be successful. The underlying theme for the research is to address the question: Will there be seafood and a healthy ocean for future generations to enjoy?