Modeling Life in the Future Ocean

模拟未来海洋中的生命

• 批准号: RGPIN-2014-05782
• 负责人: Christensen, Villy
• 金额: $ 1.97万
• 依托单位: University of British Columbia
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2016-01-01 至 2017-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=611841
• 关键词: Modeling; Life; Future; Ocean

The Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) has sparked the development of an ensemble of global models to analyze how climate change impacts our environment. The focus of this has been on environmental parameters (temperature, pH, etc.) while there up to now has been but little research on how climate change may impact life on earth at the global scale. For terrestrial systems this has been followed up with models for how climate change combined with land use patterns may be impacting future global biodiversity, but similar analysis for the oceans are still wanting. The oceans supply us with seafood, among many other services, and there have been serious declines in fish populations over the last century due to overexploitation. As a result, the oceans now supply less seafood than they did in the peak fish years around 1980 even though fishing capacity has continued to increase globally. We fish more, but catch less. Adding to the problem is that the productivity of the world ocean may become seriously impacted by climate change. The few existing predictions point to widespread redistributions of fish species, generally in polar directions, and that overall productivity will decline, especially in the tropic. These projections are based on modeling with mainly physiological constraints but with no considerations for how ecological interactions, top-down and bottom-up forces impact seafood production. In essence, it is not clear how the redistributions of predator and prey species will impact their productivity, nor is the potential impacts of management interactions or changes in ocean productivity patterns. We have learned though from regional ecosystem studies that to replicate population trends over time we have to consider all of these factors in concert; hence they should also be considered for modeling at the global level. It is the intention through this Discovery Grant to develop and apply an ecosystem model of the global ocean that considers environmental productivity, food web and fisheries effects, and to test alternative hypotheses for key ecological and modeling processes. The global model is designed to provide plausible predictions for how future seafood production may be impacted by climate change and of the likelihood that alternative mitigation measures may be successful. The underlying theme for the research is to address the question: Will there be seafood and a healthy ocean for future generations to enjoy?

政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）推动了一系列全球模型的发展，以分析气候变化如何影响我们的环境。这方面的重点是环境参数（温度、pH值等），而到目前为止，关于气候变化如何影响全球范围内地球上的生命的研究还很少。对于陆地系统，已经有了气候变化与土地利用模式相结合可能如何影响未来全球生物多样性的模型，但是对海洋的类似分析仍然缺乏。