Developing planning and forecasting tools for age-friendly rural and community transportation alternatives: a focus on volunteer driver programs to facilitate older person mobility and safety

开发适合老年人的农村和社区交通替代方案的规划和预测工具：重点关注志愿司机计划，以促进老年人的出行和安全

• 批准号: RGPIN-2015-05777
• 负责人: Hanson, Trevor
• 金额: $ 1.68万
• 依托单位: University of New Brunswick
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2018-01-01 至 2019-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=653033
• 关键词: Developing; planning; forecasting; tools; age

This proposed research program will study organized community transportation programs (such as volunteer driver programs) to develop scientific tools for the transportation engineering profession to support program planning, design, operation, and management to maximize utility in meeting safety and mobility needs of car-dependent older adults as they age.  The expected tripling of the Canadian population over the age of 65 years by 2056, and declining family sizes, suggests that "friends and family" cannot satisfy future transportation demand of older drivers as they transition to passengers. Community transportation programs offer a solution, but the collective body of*knowledge surrounding community transportation programs is often case-study or anecdotal in nature.  There is a lack of scientific understanding of these programs with respect to their effectiveness for meeting mobility needs, their potential for success by location, their*scalability to meet growth in demand, and their contribution to public safety by facilitating the transition of a medically-at-risk driver.  I propose formalizing the deployment of community-based transportation programs by studying them through a transportation engineering and planning lens. ***My short-term objectives over the next 5 years are focused on developing a foundation for incorporating the travel*demand associated with a subset of community transportation programs, volunteer driver programs in particular, into transportation engineering and planning practice.  Four MScE students will assist me with completing the following four objectives: ***A.Develop an inventory of volunteer driver programs that is national in scope,*focused on qualifying and quantifying their organizational and operational attributes.***B.Identify critical success factors for program deployment and sustainability.***C.Predict travel demand for a volunteer driver program.  ***D.Quantify the safety benefits of transitioning a medically-at-risk rural older*driver to a volunteer driver program.***The results of this work over the short and long term will create a body of knowledge surrounding community transportation systems that currently does not exist in a meaningful or systematic way.  It will move the development of community transportation alternatives from the domain of anecdotal operational development and planning to the transportation engineering domain, increasing the likelihood of success in meeting older people's needs for safety and mobility

这项拟议的研究计划将研究有组织的社区交通计划(如志愿司机计划)，为交通工程专业开发科学工具，以支持计划的规划、设计、运营和管理，以最大限度地提高效用，满足依赖汽车的老年人随着年龄的增长对安全和机动性的需求。预计到2056年，加拿大65岁以上的人口将增加两倍，家庭规模不断下降，这表明，随着老年司机向乘客过渡，“朋友和家人”无法满足他们未来的交通需求。社区交通项目提供了一个解决方案，但围绕社区交通项目的集体知识本质上往往是个案研究或轶事。对于这些项目在满足移动性需求方面的有效性、它们按地点取得成功的潜力、它们满足需求增长的可扩展性以及它们通过促进处于危险之中的医疗司机的转变而对公共安全做出的贡献，缺乏科学的理解。我建议通过交通工程和规划的视角来研究社区交通项目的正式部署。*我未来5年的短期目标是建立一个基础，以便将与社区交通项目，特别是志愿者司机项目的子集相关的出行*需求纳入交通工程和规划实践。我的四名MSCE学生将帮助我完成以下四个目标：*A.制定一份全国性的志愿者司机项目清单，*专注于鉴定和量化他们的组织和运营属性。*B.确定计划部署和可持续发展的关键成功因素。*C.预测志愿司机计划的出行需求。*D.量化将有医疗风险的农村老年*司机过渡到志愿司机计划的安全益处。*这项工作的短期和长期结果将创建一个围绕社区交通系统的知识体系，目前没有意义或系统的方式存在。它将把社区交通替代方案的开发从传闻的运营发展和规划领域转移到交通工程领域，提高成功满足老年人安全和移动需求的可能性