Developing planning and forecasting tools for age-friendly rural and community transportation alternatives: a focus on volunteer driver programs to facilitate older person mobility and safety

该研究计划将研究有组织的社区交通项目（如志愿者司机项目），为交通工程专业开发科学工具，以支持项目规划、设计、运营和管理，最大限度地满足依赖汽车的老年人的安全和出行需求。预计到2056年，加拿大65岁以上的人口将增加两倍，而家庭规模的缩小表明，“朋友和家人”无法满足老年司机向乘客转变的未来交通需求。社区交通项目提供了一个解决方案，但围绕社区交通项目的集体知识往往是个案研究或轶事性质的。对于这些项目在满足出行需求方面的有效性、它们在地理位置上的成功潜力、它们在满足需求增长方面的可扩展性，以及它们通过促进有医疗风险的司机的转变对公共安全的贡献，人们缺乏科学的理解。我建议通过交通工程和规划的视角对社区交通项目进行研究，从而使其正规化。我未来5年的短期目标是建立一个基础，将与社区交通项目相关的旅行需求，特别是志愿者司机项目，纳入交通工程和规划实践。四名MScE学生将协助我完成以下四个目标：a .编制一份全国范围内的志愿司机项目清单，重点是确定和量化他们的组织和运营属性。b .确定项目部署和可持续性的关键成功因素。c .预测志愿司机项目的旅行需求。d .量化将有医疗风险的农村老年司机转变为志愿者司机项目的安全效益。从短期和长期来看，这项工作的结果将创造一个围绕社区交通系统的知识体系，目前还没有以有意义或系统的方式存在。它将把社区交通替代方案的发展从轶事业务发展和规划领域转移到交通工程领域，增加成功满足老年人对安全和机动性需求的可能性

This proposed research program will study organized community transportation programs (such as volunteer driver programs) to develop scientific tools for the transportation engineering profession to support program planning, design, operation, and management to maximize utility in meeting safety and mobility needs of car-dependent older adults as they age.  The expected tripling of the Canadian population over the age of 65 years by 2056, and declining family sizes, suggests that "friends and family" cannot satisfy future transportation demand of older drivers as they transition to passengers. Community transportation programs offer a solution, but the collective body ofknowledge surrounding community transportation programs is often case-study or anecdotal in nature.  There is a lack of scientific understanding of these programs with respect to their effectiveness for meeting mobility needs, their potential for success by location, theirscalability to meet growth in demand, and their contribution to public safety by facilitating the transition of a medically-at-risk driver.  I propose formalizing the deployment of community-based transportation programs by studying them through a transportation engineering and planning lens. My short-term objectives over the next 5 years are focused on developing a foundation for incorporating the traveldemand associated with a subset of community transportation programs, volunteer driver programs in particular, into transportation engineering and planning practice.  Four MScE students will assist me with completing the following four objectives: A.Develop an inventory of volunteer driver programs that is national in scope,focused on qualifying and quantifying their organizational and operational attributes.B.Identify critical success factors for program deployment and sustainability.C.Predict travel demand for a volunteer driver program.  D.Quantify the safety benefits of transitioning a medically-at-risk rural olderdriver to a volunteer driver program.The results of this work over the short and long term will create a body of knowledge surrounding community transportation systems that currently does not exist in a meaningful or systematic way.  It will move the development of community transportation alternatives from the domain of anecdotal operational development and planning to the transportation engineering domain, increasing the likelihood of success in meeting older people's needs for safety and mobility