Developing planning and forecasting tools for age-friendly rural and community transportation alternatives: a focus on volunteer driver programs to facilitate older person mobility and safety

开发适合老年人的农村和社区交通替代方案的规划和预测工具：重点关注志愿司机计划，以促进老年人的出行和安全

• 批准号: RGPIN-2015-05777
• 负责人: Hanson, Trevor
• 金额: $ 1.68万
• 依托单位: University of New Brunswick
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=761624
• 关键词: Developing; planning; forecasting; tools; age

This proposed research program will study organized community transportation programs (such as volunteer driver programs) to develop scientific tools for the transportation engineering profession to support program planning, design, operation, and management to maximize utility in meeting safety and mobility needs of car-dependent older adults as they age.  The expected tripling of the Canadian population over the age of 65 years by 2056, and declining family sizes, suggests that "friends and family" cannot satisfy future transportation demand of older drivers as they transition to passengers. Community transportation programs offer a solution, but the collective body ofknowledge surrounding community transportation programs is often case-study or anecdotal in nature.  There is a lack of scientific understanding of these programs with respect to their effectiveness for meeting mobility needs, their potential for success by location, theirscalability to meet growth in demand, and their contribution to public safety by facilitating the transition of a medically-at-risk driver.  I propose formalizing the deployment of community-based transportation programs by studying them through a transportation engineering and planning lens. My short-term objectives over the next 5 years are focused on developing a foundation for incorporating the traveldemand associated with a subset of community transportation programs, volunteer driver programs in particular, into transportation engineering and planning practice.  Four MScE students will assist me with completing the following four objectives: A.Develop an inventory of volunteer driver programs that is national in scope,focused on qualifying and quantifying their organizational and operational attributes.B.Identify critical success factors for program deployment and sustainability.C.Predict travel demand for a volunteer driver program.  D.Quantify the safety benefits of transitioning a medically-at-risk rural olderdriver to a volunteer driver program.The results of this work over the short and long term will create a body of knowledge surrounding community transportation systems that currently does not exist in a meaningful or systematic way.  It will move the development of community transportation alternatives from the domain of anecdotal operational development and planning to the transportation engineering domain, increasing the likelihood of success in meeting older people's needs for safety and mobility

这项拟议的研究计划将研究有组织的社区交通计划（如志愿者司机计划），为交通工程专业开发科学工具，以支持计划规划、设计、运营和管理，以最大限度地满足依赖汽车的老年人随着年龄的增长而对安全和流动性的需求。预计到2056年，加拿大65岁以上的人口将增加两倍，以及家庭规模的下降，表明“朋友和家人”不能满足老年司机过渡到乘客的未来交通需求。社区交通计划提供了一个解决方案，但围绕社区交通计划的知识体系通常是案例研究或轶事性质的。对于这些计划在满足流动性需求方面的有效性，它们在位置上的成功潜力，它们满足需求增长的可扩展性，以及他们通过促进医疗风险驾驶员的过渡对公共安全的贡献。我建议通过交通工程和规划透镜来研究社区交通计划，从而正式部署社区交通计划。我在未来5年的短期目标是专注于发展一个基础，将与社区交通计划的子集，特别是志愿者司机计划相关的旅行需求纳入交通工程和规划实践。四个硕士学生将帮助我完成以下四个目标：A.编制一份全国范围的志愿司机方案清单，重点是确定和量化他们的组织和运营属性。B.确定计划部署和可持续性的关键成功因素。C.预测旅行对志愿者驾驶员计划的需求。D.量化医疗过渡的安全效益，将农村老年司机风险转移到志愿者司机计划。这项工作在短期和长期的结果将创建一个围绕社区交通系统的知识体系，而这些知识目前还不存在有意义或系统的方式。它将推动社区交通替代方案的开发从领域交通工程领域的轶事业务发展和规划，增加了成功满足老年人安全和流动性需求的可能性