Developing planning and forecasting tools for age-friendly rural and community transportation alternatives: a focus on volunteer driver programs to facilitate older person mobility and safety

该拟议研究计划将研究有组织的社区交通计划（例如志愿者司机计划），为交通工程专业开发科学工具，以支持计划规划、设计、运营和管理，以最大限度地提高满足依赖汽车的老年人随着年龄增长的安全和出行需求的效用。  预计到 2056 年，加拿大 65 岁以上人口将增加两倍，并且家庭规模不断缩小，这表明“朋友和家人”无法满足老年司机未来转型为乘客的交通需求。社区交通计划提供了一种解决方案，但围绕社区交通计划的知识集体通常是案例研究或轶事性质的。  人们对这些项目缺乏科学的理解，包括它们满足出行需求的有效性、它们在不同地点的成功潜力、它们满足需求增长的可扩展性，以及它们通过促进有医疗风险的驾驶员的过渡对公共安全的贡献。  我建议通过交通工程和规划的视角进行研究，从而正式部署基于社区的交通项目。我未来 5 年的短期目标重点是建立一个基础，将与社区交通计划子集（特别是志愿者司机计划）相关的出行需求纳入交通工程和规划实践。  四名理学硕士学生将协助我完成以下四个目标： A. 制定全国范围内的志愿司机计划清单，重点是限定和量化其组织和运营属性。B. 确定计划部署和可持续性的关键成功因素。 C. 预测志愿司机计划的出行需求。  D. 量化将有医疗风险的农村老年司机转变为志愿者司机计划的安全效益。这项工作的短期和长期结果将创建围绕社区交通系统的知识体系，而目前这些知识体系尚不存在有意义或系统的方式。  它将把社区交通替代方案的开发从轶事运营开发和规划领域转移到交通工程领域，从而增加成功满足老年人对安全和出行需求的可能性

This proposed research program will study organized community transportation programs (such as volunteer driver programs) to develop scientific tools for the transportation engineering profession to support program planning, design, operation, and management to maximize utility in meeting safety and mobility needs of car-dependent older adults as they age.  The expected tripling of the Canadian population over the age of 65 years by 2056, and declining family sizes, suggests that "friends and family" cannot satisfy future transportation demand of older drivers as they transition to passengers. Community transportation programs offer a solution, but the collective body ofknowledge surrounding community transportation programs is often case-study or anecdotal in nature.  There is a lack of scientific understanding of these programs with respect to their effectiveness for meeting mobility needs, their potential for success by location, theirscalability to meet growth in demand, and their contribution to public safety by facilitating the transition of a medically-at-risk driver.  I propose formalizing the deployment of community-based transportation programs by studying them through a transportation engineering and planning lens. My short-term objectives over the next 5 years are focused on developing a foundation for incorporating the traveldemand associated with a subset of community transportation programs, volunteer driver programs in particular, into transportation engineering and planning practice.  Four MScE students will assist me with completing the following four objectives: A.Develop an inventory of volunteer driver programs that is national in scope,focused on qualifying and quantifying their organizational and operational attributes.B.Identify critical success factors for program deployment and sustainability.C.Predict travel demand for a volunteer driver program.  D.Quantify the safety benefits of transitioning a medically-at-risk rural olderdriver to a volunteer driver program.The results of this work over the short and long term will create a body of knowledge surrounding community transportation systems that currently does not exist in a meaningful or systematic way.  It will move the development of community transportation alternatives from the domain of anecdotal operational development and planning to the transportation engineering domain, increasing the likelihood of success in meeting older people's needs for safety and mobility