Forecasting and Modeling of Distributed Energy Resources, and Models for Distributed System Operator Planning and Operation

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Large scale integration of distributed energy resources (DERs), such as renewables, storage and smart loads into electric power distribution systems, is a path that leads to greening of our energy systems and a zero carbon 2050 future. This is a future that our society desires and helps to mitigate climate change. This is also a challenging task. Electric utilities require aggregate methods for forecasting of DERs, aggregate steady-state and aggregate transient DER models - at feeder and substation levels - to best manage their electric power networks. Further, with the potential of peer-to-peer energy transactions between DERs and other customers, better economic techno-models are a pressing need such that DERs derive best value and utility customers gain the best advantage. Accordingly, proposed work is driven by this urgent need to green our energy supply through increasing the uptake of DERs. DERs are small in size and numerous. Their intermittent and uncertain nature poses a challenge for utilities to monitor, forecast, model, analyse and operate their networks. The overarching goal is to develop tools and frameworks that support the sustainable and seamless integration of diverse forms of energy from DERs into the HONI grid in ways that maximize opportunity, access to the grid, and choice for all stakeholders (including DER owners and electricity customers), which will also enable deep electrification. To achieve this outcome, we are proposing four work packages (WPs) to develop AI-based, high-resolution, aggregate, DER forecasting tools, steady-state DER models, transient DER models, and distribution system operator (DSO) and distribution network operator (DNO) models for operation and planning, comprising algorithms and software implementation. Canada needs to increase its clean energy supply two or three folds from its current situation. The project's outcomes will contribute to the Canadian economy though enhanced supply reliability, resilience to face extreme weather, and economic accessibility, facilitating greater DER uptake as the pathway to deep clean electrification.