Modelling and Optimization of Supply Chain Disruptions due to Catstrophic Events

供应链管理要求协调不同公司之间的活动，从而形成一个相互联系的运营网络，减少库存。虽然这通常会提高供应链的效率，但也会增加供应链中公司的风险敞口。产品和服务的复杂性和离岸外包的增加也增加了供应网络内的风险多样性。事实上，传统的供应链运营模式强调经济效率，导致供应链以最小的库存和设施运行，这可能会延迟从中断中恢复。此外，即时系统的使用意味着供应链减少了它们的供应商池，反过来，相互竞争的供应链往往共用同一个供应商。因此，一个供应点的中断可能导致多个供应链同时中断。例如，2011年泰国发生洪灾时，其对汽车供应链的影响波及全球。在北美，本田宣布其在加拿大和美国的产量将减少约50%，丰田不得不停止所有加班生产并暂时关闭其工厂。这种严重的中断不仅是自然灾害造成的供应风险，也可能是需求和运营风险的结果。例如，李斯特菌病爆发后，枫叶食品公司召回了250名工人，召回成本为2000万美元，集体诉讼和解费用为2700万美元。在如此严重的供需中断之后，即使是在一度被认为是高度自律的供应链中，企业也开始质疑他们运营供应链的方式，特别是如何在设计和运营中纳入风险影响。他们现在正在重新思考他们的供应链网络配置和运营管理：他们是堆积库存，在风险事件发生后改变价格，增加昂贵的生产和/或分销设施，还是重组他们的供应基地？**考虑到这些灾难性事件发生的不确定性和事后决策的复杂性，供应链开发风险识别和评估模型以及适当的风险处理措施非常重要。因此，本研究的目标是开发供应链风险管理模型，以便：(1)通过估计多个事件的风险概率来理解供应链风险，这些事件可能是相互依赖的，可能涉及供应链中的多个合作伙伴；(2)制定系统的程序来识别和评估供应和需求风险，以及它们如何在供应链中传播；*(3)设计强大的供应网络，能够抵御中断，并提供一定程度的免疫力，以抵御可能的风险事件。这些模型将有助于业务研究和管理领域的风险分析。他们也有望受益并为保险数学理论和不断发展的数据分析领域做出贡献。**除了培养研究生外，预计这项研究将通过为加拿大公司提供工具来准备和减轻供应链风险中断，从而有助于提高加拿大公司的竞争力。最近的一项全球采购研究进一步强调了研究这些问题的重要性，该研究发现，80%的公司容易受到重大供应中断的影响。此外，供应链环节失败的财务影响可能是巨大的。研究发现，在宣布供应链故障的当天，公司股价平均下跌10.28%。

Supply chain management calls for the coordination of activities between different companies resulting in an interlinked network of operations with reduced inventories. While this often leads to a more efficient supply chain, it has also resulted in increasing the risk exposure of companies in the supply chain. The increase in complexity and offshoring of products and services has also increased the risk diversity within the supply networks. The fact that supply chain operational models had traditionally emphasized economic efficiency, leading to supply chains operating on minimum inventories and facilities, is likely to delay the recovery from disruptions. In addition, the use of just in time systems had meant that supply chains reduced their suppliers pool and in turn competing supply chains often share the same supplier. Thus a disruption in one supply point can lead to simultaneous disruptions in several supply chains. For example, when the flooding hit Thailand in 2011, its effect on the auto supply chain were felt all over the world. In North America, Honda announced that its production in Canada and the US would be reduced by about 50% and Toyota had to stop all its overtime production and temporarily shut its plants. Such major disruptions are not unique to supply risks from natural disasters, they can also be the result of demand and operational risks. For example the Maple Leaf Foods recall after the listeriosis outbreak resulted in a temporary layoff of 250 workers, $20 million in recall costs and $27 million for settling class-action lawsuits. After such major supply and demand disruptions, even within the once thought of as highly disciplined supply chains, companies have started questioning the way they operate their supply chains and in particular how to incorporate risk effects in their design and operation. They are now rethinking their supply chain network configurations and operations management: Do they pile up inventory, change prices subsequent to a risk event, add expensive production and/or distribution facilities, or reorganize their supply base? **Given the uncertainty in the occurrence of these catastrophic events and the complexity of the aftermath decision making, it is important that supply chains develop models for the identification and assessment of risk and appropriate risk handling measures. It is thus the goal of this proposed research to develop supply chain risk management models to: (1) understand supply chain risks by estimating risk probabilities for multiple events that may be dependent and may involve several partners in a supply chain, (2) develop systematic procedures for the identification and assessment of supply and demand risks and how they propagate through the supply chain, and *(3) design robust supply networks that are resilient to disruptions and provide a level of immunity against possible risky events. The models would contribute to risk analysis in the area of operations research and management. They are also expected to benefit and contribute to the theory of insurance mathematics and the growing field of data analytics.**In addition to training graduate students, it is anticipated that this research will contribute to the competitiveness of*Canadian companies by providing them with tools to prepare for and mitigate supply chain risk disruptions. The*importance of studying these issues is further highlighted by a recent global procurement study that found that 80% of companies are vulnerable to a major supply disruption. In addition, the financial implication of a failure in a supply chain link can be enormous. Studies have found that a company's stock price decreases on average by 10.28% on the day that an announcement of a supply chain failure is made.