Modelling and Optimization of Supply Chain Disruptions due to Catstrophic Events

灾难性事件造成的供应链中断的建模和优化

• 批准号: RGPIN-2014-04827
• 负责人: Hassini, Elkafi
• 金额: $ 1.75万
• 依托单位: McMaster University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2019-01-01 至 2020-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=679854
• 关键词: Modelling; Optimization; Supply; Chain; Disruptions

Supply chain management calls for the coordination of activities between different companies resulting in an interlinked network of operations with reduced inventories. While this often leads to a more efficient supply chain, it has also resulted in increasing the risk exposure of companies in the supply chain. The increase in complexity and offshoring of products and services has also increased the risk diversity within the supply networks. The fact that supply chain operational models had traditionally emphasized economic efficiency, leading to supply chains operating on minimum inventories and facilities, is likely to delay the recovery from disruptions. In addition, the use of just in time systems had meant that supply chains reduced their suppliers pool and in turn competing supply chains often share the same supplier. Thus a disruption in one supply point can lead to simultaneous disruptions in several supply chains. For example, when the flooding hit Thailand in 2011, its effect on the auto supply chain were felt all over the world. In North America, Honda announced that its production in Canada and the US would be reduced by about 50% and Toyota had to stop all its overtime production and temporarily shut its plants. Such major disruptions are not unique to supply risks from natural disasters, they can also be the result of demand and operational risks. For example the Maple Leaf Foods recall after the listeriosis outbreak resulted in a temporary layoff of 250 workers, $20 million in recall costs and $27 million for settling class-action lawsuits. After such major supply and demand disruptions, even within the once thought of as highly disciplined supply chains, companies have started questioning the way they operate their supply chains and in particular how to incorporate risk effects in their design and operation. They are now rethinking their supply chain network configurations and operations management: Do they pile up inventory, change prices subsequent to a risk event, add expensive production and/or distribution facilities, or reorganize their supply base? **Given the uncertainty in the occurrence of these catastrophic events and the complexity of the aftermath decision making, it is important that supply chains develop models for the identification and assessment of risk and appropriate risk handling measures. It is thus the goal of this proposed research to develop supply chain risk management models to: (1) understand supply chain risks by estimating risk probabilities for multiple events that may be dependent and may involve several partners in a supply chain, (2) develop systematic procedures for the identification and assessment of supply and demand risks and how they propagate through the supply chain, and *(3) design robust supply networks that are resilient to disruptions and provide a level of immunity against possible risky events. The models would contribute to risk analysis in the area of operations research and management. They are also expected to benefit and contribute to the theory of insurance mathematics and the growing field of data analytics.**In addition to training graduate students, it is anticipated that this research will contribute to the competitiveness of*Canadian companies by providing them with tools to prepare for and mitigate supply chain risk disruptions. The*importance of studying these issues is further highlighted by a recent global procurement study that found that 80% of companies are vulnerable to a major supply disruption. In addition, the financial implication of a failure in a supply chain link can be enormous. Studies have found that a company's stock price decreases on average by 10.28% on the day that an announcement of a supply chain failure is made.

供应链管理要求协调不同公司之间的活动，从而形成一个相互联系的业务网络，减少库存。虽然这通常会提高供应链的效率，但也增加了供应链中公司的风险。产品和服务的复杂性和离岸外包的增加也增加了供应网络内的风险多样性。供应链运作模式传统上强调经济效率，导致供应链以最低限度的库存和设施运作，这可能会推迟从中断中恢复过来。此外，使用准时制意味着供应链减少了供应商的数量，而相互竞争的供应链往往共用同一个供应商。因此，一个供应点的中断可能导致多个供应链同时中断。例如，2011年泰国发生洪水，全世界都感受到了洪水对汽车供应链的影响。在北美，本田宣布在加拿大和美国的产量将减少约50%，丰田不得不停止所有加班生产并暂时关闭工厂。这种重大中断并不是自然灾害造成的供应风险所独有的，也可能是需求和运营风险造成的。例如，枫叶食品公司在霍乱爆发后的召回导致250名工人临时裁员，2000万美元的召回费用和2700万美元的集体诉讼和解费用。 在这种严重的供需中断之后，即使在一度被认为是高度自律的供应链中，公司也开始质疑他们运营供应链的方式，特别是如何在设计和运营中考虑风险影响。他们现在正在重新思考他们的供应链网络配置和运营管理：他们是否堆积库存，在风险事件后改变价格，增加昂贵的生产和/或分销设施，或者重组他们的供应基地？** 鉴于这些灾难性事件发生的不确定性和善后决策的复杂性，供应链必须制定识别和评估风险的模型以及适当的风险处理措施。因此，本研究的目标是开发供应链风险管理模型，以：（1）通过估计多个事件的风险概率来了解供应链风险，这些事件可能是相互依赖的，可能涉及供应链中的几个合作伙伴，（2）制定系统的程序来识别和评估供应和需求风险，以及它们如何在供应链中传播，及 *（3）设计稳健的供应网络，以抵御中断，并对可能发生的风险事件提供一定程度的免疫力。 这些模型将有助于业务研究和管理领域的风险分析。他们还有望受益于保险数学理论和不断增长的数据分析领域。除了培训研究生，预计这项研究将有助于 * 加拿大公司的竞争力，为他们提供工具，以准备和减轻供应链风险中断。最近的一项全球采购研究进一步强调了研究这些问题的重要性，该研究发现，80%的公司容易受到重大供应中断的影响。此外，供应链环节的故障可能会产生巨大的财务影响。研究发现，在宣布供应链故障的当天，公司的股票价格平均下跌10.28%。