The influence of climate on species' geographic distributions and interactions.

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As a result of substantial effort over the past two decades, there are now many documented cases of how species are responding to climate change. However, our understanding of the mechanisms underlying these responses remains limited and many key processes are often ignored in predictive modelling. Without considering the mechanisms that drive species responses to climate change, the potential consequences of these responses for communities and ecosystems are difficult to accurately predict. The long-term goal of my research program is to achieve a mechanistic understanding of the ecological and evolutionary processes that structure species interactions and geographic distributions. My aim is to use this research to more accurately predict how interacting species respond to environmental change. For the next five years, I propose two new components as part of my research program that will integrate mechanistic and phenomenological approaches to meet two short-term objectives: 1) determine the effect of seasonal timing (phenology) on structuring species northern range limits and 2) disentangle the relative importance of direct and indirect effects (i.e. species interactions) of climate change on plants and their insect herbivores. I have made significant progress in the two areas that are related to these goals. For example, my work is an important empirical demonstration of the practical utilities and limitations of species distribution models in predicting species' future range shifts and understanding fundamental ecological concepts such as range limits. My work has also advanced our understanding of temperature effects on trophic interactions.***To meet the first objective, I will integrate translocation, warming, and lab experiments across a latitudinal gradient spanning the northern range edge of a butterfly (Papilio cresphontes), with ecological modeling using historical data. To meet the second objective, a series of factorial lab and greenhouse experiments that manipulate both abiotic and biotic factors will be carried out. Common milkweed (Asclepias syriaca) and some of its insect herbivores from Ottawa, ON will be target species (e.g. Danaus plexippus, Aphis spp., Oncopeltus spp.). Together, this research will help to i) advance basic knowledge of how ecological processes are influenced by environmental change; ii) test the role of species interactions in species responses to environmental change; and iii) generate mechanistically supported predictions about species' vulnerabilities to climate change.