Past and future changes in ice sheets and sea level

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Sea-level change is one of the primary hazards associated with current and expected global warming. A number of different processes will contribute to sea-level change at global and regional scales. One of the most important is future melting of ice sheets (Greenland and Antarctic). In Canada, as well as other high latitude regions that experienced glaciation during the last Ice Age, ongoing land motion as the Earth recovers from unloading of ice is another important contributing process. For example, coastal areas of Atlantic Canada are experiencing enhanced sea-level rise because of land subsidence due to this effect. ******The proposed research will contribute to our understanding of past and future sea-level change in Canada and elsewhere due to melting of the Greenland ice sheet and ongoing land motion associated with the last Ice Age. This will be done by developing and testing, through comparison with observations, computer models that simulate the underlying processes. Two aims will guide the research: one that focuses on improving and testing computer software used to simulate past and future changes in the Greenland ice sheet, and one that will improve the models used to calculate the effects of past ice unloading by adding three-dimensional structure within the Earth model. The improved models will then be used to produce future projections of sea-level change around Canadian coasts for the next century and beyond. The resulting projections will be used by provincial governments, local planners and stakeholders to assess risk associated with future sea-level rise. The research program will support the training of students at graduate and undergraduate levels.