Past and future changes in ice sheets and sea level

冰盖和海平面过去和未来的变化

• 批准号: RGPIN-2018-06355
• 负责人: Milne, Glenn
• 金额: $ 10.93万
• 依托单位: University of Ottawa
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=751209
• 关键词: Past; future; changes; ice; sheets

Sea-level change is one of the primary hazards associated with current and expected global warming. A number of different processes will contribute to sea-level change at global and regional scales. One of the most important is future melting of ice sheets (Greenland and Antarctic). In Canada, as well as other high latitude regions that experienced glaciation during the last Ice Age, ongoing land motion as the Earth recovers from unloading of ice is another important contributing process. For example, coastal areas of Atlantic Canada are experiencing enhanced sea-level rise because of land subsidence due to this effect. The proposed research will contribute to our understanding of past and future sea-level change in Canada and elsewhere due to melting of the Greenland ice sheet and ongoing land motion associated with the last Ice Age. This will be done by developing and testing, through comparison with observations, computer models that simulate the underlying processes. Two aims will guide the research: one that focuses on improving and testing computer software used to simulate past and future changes in the Greenland ice sheet, and one that will improve the models used to calculate the effects of past ice unloading by adding three-dimensional structure within the Earth model. The improved models will then be used to produce future projections of sea-level change around Canadian coasts for the next century and beyond. The resulting projections will be used by provincial governments, local planners and stakeholders to assess risk associated with future sea-level rise. The research program will support the training of students at graduate and undergraduate levels.

海平面变化是与当前和预期的全球变暖有关的主要危险之一。若干不同的过程将对全球和区域范围内的海平面变化作出贡献。其中最重要的一项是未来冰盖(格陵兰和南极)的融化。在加拿大，以及在上一个冰河时代经历冰川作用的其他高纬度地区，随着地球从卸冰中恢复过来，正在进行的陆地运动是另一个重要的贡献过程。例如，由于这种影响，大西洋加拿大的沿海地区正在经历海平面上升的加剧，原因是地面下沉。拟议的研究将有助于我们了解由于格陵兰冰盖融化和与上一个冰河时代相关的持续陆地运动而导致的加拿大和其他地方过去和未来的海平面变化。这将通过开发和测试模拟基本过程的计算机模型来实现，方法是与观测结果进行比较。这项研究将以两个目标为指导：一个是专注于改进和测试用于模拟格陵兰冰盖过去和未来变化的计算机软件，另一个是通过在地球模型中添加三维结构来改进用于计算过去冰卸载影响的模型。然后，改进后的模型将被用于预测加拿大海岸周围下个世纪及以后的海平面变化。由此产生的预测将被省级政府、地方规划者和利益攸关方用来评估与未来海平面上升相关的风险。该研究计划将支持研究生和本科生的培训。