Testing and Improving Models of Ice Sheet and Sea Level Evolution

点击翻译按钮获取中文摘要

Sea-level rise is one of the primary hazards associated with current and expected global warming. There are two processes that will dominate this change at global scales: melting of land ice (Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, smaller glaciers and ice caps) and warming of the oceans (resulting in an expansion in ocean water volume). In Canada, as well as other high latitude regions that experienced glaciation during the last Ice Age, on-going land motion in response to the melting of ancient ice sheets is also a significant contributor to present day sea-level change. For example, coastal areas of Atlantic Canada are experiencing enhanced sea level rise (relative to the global mean) because of land subsidence due to the melting of ice between 20,000-7,000 years before present. The proposed research will contribute to our understanding of all of these processes through comparing output from computer models to observations relating to both past and present climate change. Specifically, models that simulate the response of ice sheets to climate change and those that simulate the corresponding changes in sea level will be tested and calibrated through these data-model comparisons. A primary focus of the research will be testing and improving models of Greenland ice sheet evolution so that the contribution of this ice sheet to future sea-level change can be more accurately determined. A key delivery of the research will be forecasts of future sea levels during the next century and beyond around Canadian coasts.