Assessment of the long term performance of high level radioactive fuel containers in Canadian shield

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The Nuclear Waste Management Organization (NWMO) has the responsibility for the long-term management of Canada's used nuclear fuel. The emplacement of used nuclear fuel in a deep geological repository situated in the Canadian Shield has been identified conceptually as the best option to achieve containment and isolation from the environment and people. A carbon steel container coated with an external copper corrosion layer is proposed for the containment of the used nuclear fuel. Of interest to the NWMO is the expected failure rate of the used fuel containers over the time scales of interest, which range from 60,000 years to 1 million years. Owing to the uncertainty in deterministic life predictions, the NWMO will work with researchers under the directions of Professors Ponnambalam and Pandey of the University of Waterloo to develop a probabilistic failure analysis model that can be incorporated into post-closure safety analysis of the repository. The applicants in the Faculty of Engineering at the University of Waterloo are well positioned to deliver on a probabilistic model for the failure of the used fuel containers. In addition to significant practical experience with probabilistic assessments of real-life nuclear components, the research group brings to this task extensive multi-industry experience in failure analysis, practical understanding of manufacturing processes, and broad hands-on know-how in metallurgy and corrosion. The unique makeup of this team of academic researchers and industrial scientists offers a distinct perspective into the probabilistic failure analysis modelling of the used fuel containers and guarantees a well-balanced solution, integrating sensitivity and uncertainty analysis along with advanced Bayesian Network based Monte Carlo simulations into a proven and transparent nuclear-based probabilistic safety analysis framework for the assessment of postulated failure mechanisms.****