Natural versus anthropogenic forcing of variability in prairie hydroclimate

草原水文气候变化的自然与人为强迫

• 批准号: 1454-2013
• 负责人: Sauchyn, David
• 金额: $ 2.4万
• 依托单位: University of Regina
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2018-01-01 至 2019-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=664337
• 关键词: Natural; versus; anthropogenic; forcing; variability

The objective of the proposed research program is to advance our understanding of the modes and forcing of hydroclimatic variability in the past and near future in Canada's western interior. Historically, climate extremes in this region have been Canada's most costly natural disasters. The scientific approach will include the statistical analysis of instrumental weather and water records, tree-ring data from more than 165 sites that circumscribe the Prairie Ecozone, and outputs from global and regional climate models. We will improve our tree-ring reconstruction of hydrology and climate by a) monitoring radial growth response to weather variables, b) deriving new climate proxies (wood anatomy, early- and late-wood width and density) from our large tree-ring archive, and c) enhancing the signals of excess and cold season precipitation. The proposed research represents a first attempt in western North American to link xylem phenology (xylogenesis) and dendroclimatology. Another innovation is blending data from climate proxies and models, enabling us to interpret the modes of hydroclimatic variability expressed across our tree-ring network in relation to model simulations of the regional hydro-climatology, and the large-scale forcing of climate variability (teleconnections). The paleo-climatic perspective provides significant context for the detection and interpretation of emerging trends in short instrumental records that fall within oscillations of the hydroclimate. Our work has various applications in the fields of climate change science, statistical hydrology and water resource management, with opportunities for collaboration with natural scientists and engineers, and with social scientists investigating the reaction of communities and governance institutions to climate variability and change. The proposed research program is therefore novel in terms of advancing climate science while delivering findings (e.g. historical and projected probability distributions for drought and excessive moisture) such that they can inform decision making to prevent or limit adverse impacts of climate change. ******

拟议研究计划的目的是增进我们对加拿大西部内陆过去和不久的将来水文气候变化的模式和强迫的理解。从历史上看，该地区的极端气候一直是加拿大损失最惨重的自然灾害。科学方法将包括对仪器天气和水记录、来自草原生态区超过 165 个地点的树木年轮数据以及全球和区域气候模型的输出进行统计分析。我们将通过以下方式改善水文和气候的树木年轮重建：a）监测径向生长对天气变量的响应，b）从我们的大型树木年轮档案中得出新的气候代理（木材解剖结构，早熟和晚熟木材宽度和密度），以及c）增强过量和冷季降水的信号。拟议的研究代表了北美西部将木质部物候学（木质发生）和树木气候学联系起来的首次尝试。 另一项创新是混合来自气候代理和模型的数据，使我们能够解释与区域水文气候模型模拟相关的树轮网络中表达的水文气候变化模式，以及气候变化的大规模强迫（遥相关）。古气候视角为检测和解释属于水文气候振荡的短期仪器记录中的新兴趋势提供了重要背景。我们的工作在气候变化科学、统计水文学和水资源管理领域有各种应用，有机会与自然科学家和工程师以及社会科学家合作，调查社区和治理机构对气候变率和变化的反应。因此，拟议的研究计划在推进气候科学方面是新颖的，同时提供研究结果（例如干旱和过度潮湿的历史和预测概率分布），以便为决策提供信息，以防止或限制气候变化的不利影响。 ******