Supporting adaptation planning in the Athabasca River Basin with advances in the projection of hydroclimatic variability

通过水文气候变化预测的进展支持阿萨巴斯卡河流域的适应规划

• 批准号: 501858-2016
• 负责人: Sauchyn, David
• 金额: $ 2.8万
• 依托单位: University of Regina
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Collaborative Research and Development Grants
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2017-01-01 至 2018-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=619002
• 关键词: Supporting; adaptation; planning; Athabasca; River

The scientific objectives of this project are to develop scenarios of projected changes in the hydroclimate of the Athabasca River Basin (ARB) using innovative methods that incorporate the forcing and modes of variability in the regional hydroclimate and are applicable to adaption planning in the basin. The project will provide our industrial partner, WaterSMART Solutions Ltd., with improved capabilities to deliver practical adaptive strategies for water management under climate change. The integrated modeling of climate, hydrology and land use is a more complete research framework than that applied to prior collaborative work with WaterSMART. Furthermore, we will profit from the knowledge gained from previous phases of our research partnership to develop robust and relevant future scenarios. The most innovative aspects of the proposed project lie in novel methods of downscaling and processing of climate model outputs. We will provide the industrial partner with the most reliable and relevant projections of hydroclimatic changes. This will require advances in the statistical processing of climate model output, so that we construct scenarios of future climate that incorporate the internal natural variability, and thus the most significant impact of a changing climate, the shift in water resources among seasons and years. Inter-annual variability and extreme hydrologic events, rather than long-term trends in mean runoff, present most of the challenge for managing watersheds and for designing and maintaining water conveyance and storage structures. We will evaluate the capacity of high-resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to simulate the full range of regional hydroclimate variability. Then we extract daily weather data from an ensemble of RCMs. Downscaling and bias-corrected data will be applied to hydrological and land use models to develop future scenarios for the ARB. From the proposed research, significant benefits will accrue to Canadian industry, academic institutions, and to scientific disciplines engaged in climate and water research.

该项目的科学目标是，利用创新方法，结合区域水文气候的强迫和变异模式，制定阿萨巴斯卡河流域水文气候预计变化情景，并适用于该流域的适应规划。该项目将为我们的工业合作伙伴WaterSMART Solutions Ltd.提高了在气候变化下实施切实可行的水资源管理适应战略的能力。气候，水文和土地利用的综合建模是一个更完整的研究框架，比以前与WaterSMART的合作工作。此外，我们将从我们的研究合作伙伴关系的前几个阶段获得的知识中获益，以开发强大和相关的未来场景。拟议项目最具创新性的方面在于缩小尺度和处理气候模型输出的新方法。我们将为工业合作伙伴提供最可靠和最相关的水文气候变化预测。这将需要在气候模型输出的统计处理方面取得进展，以便我们构建未来气候的情景，其中包括内部自然变异，从而包括气候变化的最重要影响，即水资源在季节和年份之间的变化。年际变化和极端水文事件，而不是平均径流的长期趋势，是流域管理以及设计和维护输水和蓄水结构的主要挑战。我们将评估高分辨率区域气候模式（RCMs）模拟整个区域水文气候变化的能力。然后，我们提取每日的天气数据从一个集合的RCM。降尺度和偏差校正后的数据将应用于水文和土地利用模型，以制定ARB的未来情景。拟议的研究将为加拿大工业、学术机构以及从事气候和水研究的科学学科带来重大利益。