Long-term hydroclimatic variability in the lower North Saskatchewan River Basin

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The company-specific problem addressed by the proposed project is the degree of reliability and security of**water supplies derived from the North Saskatchewan River (NSR). The industrial partner, Husky Energy,**pioneered the production of heavy oil in Western Canada. These thermal projects rely on the NSR as a source**of freshwater for steam generation at the oil processing facilities. Despite the apparent reliability of water**supplies according to annual average flows, it is critical that Husky understands the factors that could limit**water availability in the future. The proposed project will enable Husky to address risks associated with**long-term water sourcing from the NSR. The innovative techniques developed in the proposed project relate to**the reconstruction of annual and seasonal river levels over past centuries and the stochastic downscaling of**these proxy flows to weekly estimates. This paleohydrology captures a range of water levels, and modes of**variability, that are not evident in the much shorter instrumental record. This natural variability underlies any**hydrological changes caused by a changing climate. Therefore, understanding long-term natural variability is an**important precursor to subsequent research on the impacts of anthropogenic climate change.