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Natural and Externally Forced Hydroclimatic Variability in the North Saskatchewan River Basin

北萨斯喀彻温河流域的自然和外部强迫水文气候变化

基本信息

批准号：
520747-2017
负责人：
Sauchyn, David
金额：
$ 3.72万
依托单位：
University of Regina
依托单位国家：
加拿大
项目类别：
Collaborative Research and Development Grants
财政年份：
2019
资助国家：
加拿大
起止时间：
2019-01-01 至 2020-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=690263
关键词：
Natural Externally Forced Hydroclimatic Variability

项目摘要

The objective of the proposed project is to provide the industrial partner, EPCOR Utilities Inc., with projections of future climate and runoff in the North Saskatchewan River Basin (NSRB) that consider both natural variability and human caused climate change. We will evaluate the uncertainty in these projections and determine the probability of reaching extreme water levels. This project will be based on outputs from the latest generation of Regional Climate Models (RCMs). We will compare climate and runoff projections from different RCMs and multiple runs of the same RCM. This will enable us to determine how much uncertainty is due to using different models, using different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, or to the natural variability of the regional climate regime. We will compare data from the climate models to 900 years of weekly river flows based on the growth of trees in the river basin, and a method of scaling the annual flows to weekly estimates. We will also relate observations from groundwater wells to weather station data and to climate model simulations of groundwater recharge. Our projections and analysis of the variability in climate and water will provide EPCOR Utilities Inc. with improved capacity for planning and implementing adaptive strategies for water management under climate change.

拟议项目的目标是向工业合作伙伴 EPCOR Utilities Inc. 提供对北萨斯喀彻温河流域 (NSRB) 未来气候和径流的预测，其中考虑了自然变化和人为造成的气候变化。我们将评估这些预测的不确定性，并确定达到极端水位的概率。该项目将基于最新一代区域气候模型（RCM）的输出。我们将比较不同 RCM 和同一 RCM 多次运行的气候和径流预测。这将使我们能够确定由于使用不同的模型、使用不同的温室气体排放情景或区域气候状况的自然变化而造成的不确定性有多大。我们将根据流域树木的生长情况，将气候模型的数据与 900 年来的每周河流流量进行比较，以及将年流量缩放至每周估计值的方法。我们还将把地下水井的观测结果与气象站数据以及地下水补给的气候模型模拟联系起来。我们对气候和水变化的预测和分析将提高 EPCOR Utilities Inc. 规划和实施气候变化下水管理适应性策略的能力。