Multicentury reconstruction of streamflow for the Abitibi River basin and estimation of future climate changes impacts

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Predicting climate changes impacts on hydrological regimes and future water availability constitutes a priority for Canada's economy. Future changes in temperatures (warmer) and in precipitations (timing and intensity) will influence streamflow and water levels. However, the lack of long hydrological gauge series from unregulated rivers in northern regions poses a limit to our ability to assess the impact of future climate changes in these regions. This research program aims at providing a two-century long reconstruction of spring (summer) river flow for the Abitibi River Basin as well as providing a summer drought reconstruction for the same period. These reconstructions will allow us to quantify the natural variability in past hydrological regime (high and low flows). They will also allow us to estimate the potential impacts of future climate changes on the hydrology of the Abitibi River basin. Using tree-ring analyses from trees that are sensitive to spring floods (and summer drought), we will lengthen the existing instrumental record for the Abiliti River Basin. The statistical calibration that will be done between the reconstructed hydrological series and instrumental climate data (atmospheric circulation indices) will also be used to estimate the potential impacts of future climate changes using output from downscaled atmospheric circulation models. The general objectives of the research program are 1) to develop two-century long reconstructions of river flow and drought for the Abiliti River Basin, 2) to provide an estimation of the current and future climate impacts on the Abitibi River hydrological regime, 3) to validate the streamflow reconstruction using hydrological modeling coupled with climate reconstruction from climate models, 4) to provide an estimation of spring water levels by comparing tree-ring features from ring-porous trees growing along an elevational gradient and 5) to determine the utility of diffuse-porous tree species in reconstructing streamflow. This research program will benefit our partner Ontario Power Generation (OPG) and Canadian hydropower producers in general by providing the industry with scientific data that will guide decision making in regards to climate change adaptations.****