Multicentury reconstruction of streamflow for the Abitibi River basin and estimation of future climate changes impacts

预测气候变化对水文制度和未来水资源供应的影响是加拿大经济的一个优先事项。未来气温（变暖）和降水（时间和强度）的变化将影响河流流量和水位。然而，缺乏来自北方地区不受管制河流的长期水文测量序列，限制了我们评估这些地区未来气候变化影响的能力。本研究项目旨在为阿比提比河流域提供长达两个世纪的春（夏）河流量重建和同期夏季干旱重建。这些重建将使我们能够量化过去水文状态（高流量和低流量）的自然变化。它们还将使我们能够估计未来气候变化对阿比提比河流域水文的潜在影响。利用对春季洪水（和夏季干旱）敏感的树木的年轮分析，我们将延长阿比里提河流域现有的仪器记录。将在重建的水文序列和仪器气候数据（大气环流指数）之间进行的统计校准也将用于利用缩小尺度的大气环流模式的输出来估计未来气候变化的潜在影响。该研究项目的总体目标是：1)为阿比提河流域开发长达两个世纪的河流流量和干旱重建；2)提供当前和未来气候对阿比提比河水文状况的影响评估；3)验证利用水文模型和气候模型重建的河流流量重建。4)通过比较沿海拔梯度生长的多孔树木的年轮特征来估计泉水水位；5)确定扩散多孔树种在重建河流中的效用。该研究项目将为我们的合作伙伴安大略发电公司（OPG）和加拿大水电生产商提供科学数据，指导该行业在适应气候变化方面的决策，从而使他们受益。

Predicting climate changes impacts on hydrological regimes and future water availability constitutes a priority for Canada's economy. Future changes in temperatures (warmer) and in precipitations (timing and intensity) will influence streamflow and water levels. However, the lack of long hydrological gauge series from unregulated rivers in northern regions poses a limit to our ability to assess the impact of future climate changes in these regions. This research program aims at providing a two-century long reconstruction of spring (summer) river flow for the Abitibi River Basin as well as providing a summer drought reconstruction for the same period. These reconstructions will allow us to quantify the natural variability in past hydrological regime (high and low flows). They will also allow us to estimate the potential impacts of future climate changes on the hydrology of the Abitibi River basin. Using tree-ring analyses from trees that are sensitive to spring floods (and summer drought), we will lengthen the existing instrumental record for the Abiliti River Basin. The statistical calibration that will be done between the reconstructed hydrological series and instrumental climate data (atmospheric circulation indices) will also be used to estimate the potential impacts of future climate changes using output from downscaled atmospheric circulation models. The general objectives of the research program are 1) to develop two-century long reconstructions of river flow and drought for the Abiliti River Basin, 2) to provide an estimation of the current and future climate impacts on the Abitibi River hydrological regime, 3) to validate the streamflow reconstruction using hydrological modeling coupled with climate reconstruction from climate models, 4) to provide an estimation of spring water levels by comparing tree-ring features from ring-porous trees growing along an elevational gradient and 5) to determine the utility of diffuse-porous tree species in reconstructing streamflow. This research program will benefit our partner Ontario Power Generation (OPG) and Canadian hydropower producers in general by providing the industry with scientific data that will guide decision making in regards to climate change adaptations.