Improved hydrologic modelling strategies for reservoir management

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Ontario Power Generation (OPG) and Hydro Québec are responsible for the management of water reservoirs which divert or store a significant portion of Eastern Canada's annual runoff. They use this resource to generate up to 242 TWh of renewable energy annually, 37% of Canada's electricity demand. In collaboration with researchers at the University of Waterloo, this research project will improve their ability to responsibly manage such resources and maximize their efficient use for hydropower production via the development of improved hydrological modelling strategies. Computer models of the water cycle, informed by weather prediction models, are regularly used to provide short- and long-term forecasts of reservoir inflows that can be used to inform day-to-day operation of reservoirs. They are also used, in the long-term, for capital investment decisions. However, uncertainty in how best to represent hydrologic processes on at the watershed scale can reduce the predictive skill of these models. Methods developed here will be used to improve the utility and forecasting skill of these models through intelligent parameterization, improved identification of optimal model structure, and better integration of structural uncertainty. These improved methods, in turn, will lead to better management of these water resources, enabling OPG and Hydro Québec to satisfy ecological regulations and protect from downstream flood and drought impacts whilst maximizing revenue from hydroelectricity production in both the short- and long-term. Such methods will be disseminated to other reservoir and flood management agencies in Canada and abroad to improve our national capacity to more intelligently manage our water resources.