Hybrid numerical-analytical methods for subsurface flow simulation

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Many subsurface environmental / water resources problems are intensely complex, and mathematical models are required to both understand them and to provide guidance to managers and policymakers. Significant subsurface simulation problems of the early 21st century, such as determining leakage risk from carbon sequestration efforts, protecting rivers and groundwater from cross-contamination, or verifying the environmental impact of hydraulic fracturing for shale gas, are likely to be handicapped by the computational shortcomings of current modelling techniques. There are certain problems which simply can't be solved with current technology, others which can only be solved with supercomputers. Faster and more appropriate numerical methods are desirable if the models are to be used for risk analysis or management optimization, both of which require a single model to be run perhaps thousands of times. Without improvements to the technology, we are unable to test critical 'what if' scenarios regarding the regulation and protection of our water resources, which can put us at risk of potentially serious public health consequences. In cases such as the proposed nuclear waste repository on the Bruce peninsula, the use of slow or inaccurate subsurface models can seriously limit our ability to properly inform environmental policy decisions with sound science.