Investigating the influence of climate-induced landscape changes on water and carbon balances in permafrost landscapes

拟议的研究解决了迫切需要确定和绘制气候引起的景观变化对加拿大北部具有重要生态和文化意义的湖泊富含景观的水和碳平衡的影响。伊利诺伊州的老乌鸦平原(Old Crow Flats，OCF)是北部地区众多富含湖泊的永久冻土景观之一。这些景观是生态热点，为北方社区提供了重要资源。有广泛的证据表明，这些地区对不断变化的气候条件高度敏感。特别是，近几十年来，14500平方公里的OCF盆地经历了水位的剧烈变化和灌木的繁殖。对野生动物的潜在影响引发了对当地粮食安全的担忧。此外，地面温度变暖很可能正在加速老乌鸦河沿岸现有的融化滑坡，就像加拿大西北部其他地方所经历的那样。然而，目前尚不清楚北部湖泊丰富的景观的水和碳平衡是如何应对土地覆盖变化和干扰的。我的研究计划将建立在我之前在OCF的工作基础上，并为九名HQP提供培训，以确定这些关系，并完善对这一重要景观将如何应对未来气候变化的预测。*整合前沿研究方法，阐明水平衡和碳输出在不同景观变化状态下的反应，在下一个五年研究阶段特别令人感兴趣。最初，将使用星载遥感确定OCF中灌木繁殖的位置和速度，并利用无人驾驶航空系统(UAS)和树状年代学技术加以支持。将通过对流量测量以及在多个尺度(特定于湖泊和分流域)和景观特征(小溪、湖泊、沼泽、水道)上测量的水的化学和同位素特性的分析，得出地表水和次地表水及碳平衡。衰退地区上游和下游的河流水化学测量将与UAS衍生的衰退数字地表模型相结合，以评估水质和碳输出响应。古湖沼学分析将提供关于水生态条件如何对过去的气候和景观变化作出反应的额外的长期背景。研究成果将包括水和碳平衡如何应对气候驱动的景观变化的精细知识，以及预测这些重要的富含湖泊的环境将如何应对未来条件的基础。这些知识将对指导土地管理战略和加强北方社区适应气候变化的能力具有重要价值。

The proposed research addresses the urgent need to identify and map the implications of climate-induced landscape changes on water and carbon balances in an ecologically and culturally significant lake-rich landscape in northern Canada. Old Crow Flats (OCF), YK is one of many lake-rich permafrost landscapes that are prominent across northern regions. These landscapes are ecological hotspots and provide important resources for northern communities. There is widespread evidence that these areas are highly sensitive to changing climate conditions. In particular, the 14,500-square-kilometre OCF basin has experienced drastically changing water levels, and shrub proliferation during recent decades. Potential impacts on wildlife have raised concerns about local food security. Furthermore, it is likely that warming ground temperatures is accelerating existing thaw slumps along the Old Crow River, as experienced elsewhere in northwestern Canada. However, it is unclear how the water and carbon balance of northern lake-rich landscapes are responding to land cover changes and disturbance. My research program will build on my previous work in OCF and provide training for nine HQP in pursuit of identifying these relations and refine predictions of how this important landscape will respond to future climate change. ***Integrating leading-edge research approaches to elucidate how water balance and carbon export responds under varying states of landscape change is of particular interest during this next five-year phase of research. Initially, locations and rates of shrub proliferation in OCF will be identified using spaceborne remote sensing, and bolstered by use of unmanned aviation systems (UAS) and dendrochronological techniques. Surface and sub-surface water and carbon balances will be derived using analyses of flow measurements and water chemical and isotopic properties measured at multiple scales (lake-specific and sub-catchment) and landscape features (creeks, lakes, fens, watertracks). River water chemistry measurements upstream and downstream of slump locations will be coupled with UAS-derived digital surface models of slumps to evaluate water quality and carbon export responses. Paleolimnological analyses will provide additional long-term context of how hydroecological conditions have responded to past climate and landscape modifications. Research outcomes will include refined knowledge of how water and carbon balances respond to climate-driven landscape changes and the basis to predict how these important lake-rich environments will respond to future conditions. This knowledge will be valuable for informing land management strategies and enhancing the capability of northern community adaptation as climate change continues.