Investigating the influence of climate-induced landscape changes on water and carbon balances in permafrost landscapes

拟议的研究解决了迫切需要确定和映射气候引起的景观变化对水和碳平衡的影响，在生态和文化上重要的湖泊丰富的景观在加拿大北方。 老乌鸦平地（OCF），YK是众多湖泊丰富的永久冻土景观之一，在北方地区非常突出。这些景观是生态热点，为北方社区提供了重要资源。有广泛的证据表明，这些地区对不断变化的气候条件高度敏感。特别是，近几十年来，14，500平方公里的OCF盆地经历了急剧变化的水位和灌木丛的繁殖。对野生动物的潜在影响引起了人们对当地粮食安全的担忧。此外，很可能是变暖的地面温度正在加速现有的解冻下滑沿着老乌鸦河，在加拿大西北部的其他地方经历。然而，目前还不清楚北方湖泊丰富的景观的水和碳平衡是如何应对土地覆盖变化和干扰。我的研究项目将建立在我以前在OCF的工作基础上，并为9名HQP提供培训，以确定这些关系，并完善对这一重要景观如何应对未来气候变化的预测。* 在下一个五年研究阶段，整合前沿研究方法以阐明水平衡和碳输出如何在不同的景观变化状态下作出反应是特别令人感兴趣的。最初，将使用空间遥感技术确定OCF中灌木增殖的位置和速度，并通过使用无人驾驶航空系统（UAS）和树木年代学技术来支持。将通过对流量测量结果以及在多个尺度（湖泊和子集水区）和景观特征（小溪、湖泊、沼泽、水道）测量的水化学和同位素特性进行分析，得出地表和次地表水和碳平衡。滑塌地点上游和下游的河水化学测量将与UAS导出的滑塌数字表面模型相结合，以评估水质和碳输出响应。古湖沼学分析将提供水文生态条件如何对过去的气候和景观变化作出反应的额外长期背景。研究成果将包括水和碳平衡如何应对气候驱动的景观变化的精确知识，以及预测这些重要的湖泊丰富的环境将如何应对未来条件的基础。随着气候变化的继续，这一知识将对指导土地管理战略和提高北方社区的适应能力具有重要价值。

The proposed research addresses the urgent need to identify and map the implications of climate-induced landscape changes on water and carbon balances in an ecologically and culturally significant lake-rich landscape in northern Canada. Old Crow Flats (OCF), YK is one of many lake-rich permafrost landscapes that are prominent across northern regions. These landscapes are ecological hotspots and provide important resources for northern communities. There is widespread evidence that these areas are highly sensitive to changing climate conditions. In particular, the 14,500-square-kilometre OCF basin has experienced drastically changing water levels, and shrub proliferation during recent decades. Potential impacts on wildlife have raised concerns about local food security. Furthermore, it is likely that warming ground temperatures is accelerating existing thaw slumps along the Old Crow River, as experienced elsewhere in northwestern Canada. However, it is unclear how the water and carbon balance of northern lake-rich landscapes are responding to land cover changes and disturbance. My research program will build on my previous work in OCF and provide training for nine HQP in pursuit of identifying these relations and refine predictions of how this important landscape will respond to future climate change. ***Integrating leading-edge research approaches to elucidate how water balance and carbon export responds under varying states of landscape change is of particular interest during this next five-year phase of research. Initially, locations and rates of shrub proliferation in OCF will be identified using spaceborne remote sensing, and bolstered by use of unmanned aviation systems (UAS) and dendrochronological techniques. Surface and sub-surface water and carbon balances will be derived using analyses of flow measurements and water chemical and isotopic properties measured at multiple scales (lake-specific and sub-catchment) and landscape features (creeks, lakes, fens, watertracks). River water chemistry measurements upstream and downstream of slump locations will be coupled with UAS-derived digital surface models of slumps to evaluate water quality and carbon export responses. Paleolimnological analyses will provide additional long-term context of how hydroecological conditions have responded to past climate and landscape modifications. Research outcomes will include refined knowledge of how water and carbon balances respond to climate-driven landscape changes and the basis to predict how these important lake-rich environments will respond to future conditions. This knowledge will be valuable for informing land management strategies and enhancing the capability of northern community adaptation as climate change continues.