Probabilistic predictive warning system for process operations

该计划旨在开发一种概率预测方法来设计和管理过程工业中使用的早期预警系统。所提出的方法的特点和新奇是在使用概率模型报警和使用的风险在每个阶段的警告设计，即分配，报警，优先级和管理。此外，预测将用于发布警告。**另一方面，大量资源用于风险评估。然而，目前的警报系统不是基于风险的;预测的使用也受到限制。需要进行研究，使工厂警报系统成为防止事故的有效工具。* 我们计划根据量化的风险和工厂数据对事件的预测，开发一个全面的预警系统。当前的工厂警报系统使用确定性设置，其中描述异常时没有提及其可能性。我们的目标是开发工具来描述不必要的事件的可能性，并通过考虑一组可能的故障组合来解释观察结果。将开发方法来量化工厂模型的不确定性，这些不确定性来自对模型结构和过程数据中噪声的假设。还将开发与风险模型相关的Understanding。事件之间的相关性和依赖性及其后果将被量化，并在设计预警系统时考虑在内。我们还想提出一个报警设计理念，以补充现有的标准，纳入风险。将开发一个原型报警系统，该系统将与现有的核电厂报警系统集成。新系统将在试点工厂和工业环境中进行测试。过程工业迫切需要改进的报警系统。操作员经常被警报淹没，无法履行其主要职责。风险是一个被充分理解和高度重视的衡量标准。因此，预计所开发的方法将在加工工业中得到广泛应用。通过开发技术和工具，确保工厂顺利、无事故地运行，该计划将直接有助于工业部门的生产力。因此，它将有助于节省数十亿美元的损失所造成的异常情况的行业。沿着工具和方法的发展，将在这一方案中培训一些高素质的人员。 HQP将接受开发工具以及将其应用于真实的工厂的培训;因此，HQP将成为相关行业的宝贵资产。最后，所开发的方法将有助于一般性的风险评估，并可用于加工设施以外的应用，例如健康监测、经济活动和自然灾害。

This program aims to develop a probabilistic predictive approach to the design and management of early warning systems used in process industries. The special features and novelty of the proposed approach is in the use of probabilistic models for alarm annunciation and the use of risk in every stage of warning design, namely, allocation, annunciation, prioritization and management. In addition, predictions will be used for issuing warnings. ***Industries significantly benefit from using predictions for control. On the other hand, considerable resources are used for risk assessment. However, current alarm systems are not risk-based; use of predictions is also restricted. Research efforts are required to make plant alarm systems an effective tool in preventing accidents. ***We plan to develop a comprehensive early warning system based on quantified risk and prediction of events from plant data. The current plant alarm systems use a deterministic setting where abnormality is described without any reference to its likelihood. Our objective is to develop tools to describe unwanted events in terms of likelihood and perform diagnosis by considering a set of possible combinations of failures that explain the observations. Methodologies will be developed to quantify uncertainties with plant models which arise from assumptions on model structures and noises in process data. Uncertainties associated with risk models will also be developed. Correlations and dependencies among events as well as their consequences will be quantified and taken into account in the design of warning system. We also want to propose an alarm design philosophy to complement the existing standards in incorporating risk. A prototype alarm system will be developed that will be integrate-able with the existing plant alarm systems. The new system will be tested in pilot plants and industrial settings.***Process industries are in dire need of an improved alarm system. Operators are often overwhelmed by alarms and are unable to perform their main responsibilities. Risk is a measure that is well understood and highly valued. Hence, the developed methodology is expected to find widespread utility in process industries.***By developing technologies and tools that ensure smooth, accident-free operation of industrial plants, this program will contribute directly to the productivity of the industrial sector. Thus it will help to save billions of dollars in losses caused by abnormal situations in industries.***Along with the development of tools and methods, a number of highly qualified personnel will be trained in this program. The HQP will be trained on developing the tools as well as its implementation to real plants; thus the HQP will be valuable assets for the concerned industry. Finally, the developed methods will be useful for risk assessment in general with applications outside process facilities, e.g. for health monitoring, economic activities and natural disasters.***********