Toward physics-based seismic hazard assessments: A holistic approach to understanding the physics of induced earthquakes

地震是由地下断层运动引起的，由于其潜在的破坏性，具有科学和社会意义。由于动态过程的突然性和复杂性，以及地壳变形的不透明性，对地震进行全面的、基于物理学的了解仍然是一项挑战。特别是，指向人为起源的地震活动正在成为科学和政治讨论的焦点，多项已发表的研究表明，它与非常规碳氢化合物生产和地热能相关的流体注入活动有关。这是一个紧迫的问题，因为许多诱发地震发生在人口稠密的地区，这些地区被认为是地震休眠区，对任何形式的强烈震动都没有准备。目前，诱发地震的基本物理机制仍然难以捉摸，目前的地震危险性地图主要依赖于现有地震目录的统计分析。定量预测模型需要对诱发地震的物理学进行更深入的研究。我的研究计划是推进震源过程和断层破裂动力学的理解，主要集中在诱发地震活动。近年来，地震仪器和高性能计算技术的发展使地球科学家们能够对地震有更深刻和实用的认识。在未来五年，我们将解决几个关键问题：（1）描述注入和摩擦参数在地震触发中的作用;（2）阐明宿主地质环境的特征;（3）模拟触发地面运动;（4）量化不同可能触发机制对诱发地震活动的影响;（5）描述长期地震周期中地震滑动和非地震滑动的相互作用。该研究将是创新的和独特的诱发地震活动性研究，采取整体的方法，调查诱发地震活动性在多个尺度和从多个角度相结合的现场观测，实验室实验和计算建模。通过可观测量（现场和实验室数据）对震源进行表征将作为利用最先进的数值工具构建现实的基于物理的预测模型的基础。我们使用的数值模型受复杂的经验摩擦定律支配，将弥合不同尺度地震观测之间的差距，全面了解诱发地震的物理学。通过与地震学家和岩石工程师的国际合作，我的计划将有助于改善减灾和制定明确的行业法规和投资战略。推进诱发地震活动性科学也将对我们对大规模地震成核和天然地震触发的认识做出重大贡献。

Earthquakes, which result from the movements of faults in the subsurface, are of scientific and societal interest due to their destructive potential. Because of the abrupt and complex nature of the dynamic process, as well as the opacity of the deforming crust, it remains a challenge to obtain a comprehensive, physics-based understanding of earthquakes. In particular, seismicity that points to an anthropogenic origin is becoming the focus of scientific and political discussions, with multiple published studies suggesting its correlation with fluid-injection activities associated with unconventional hydrocarbon production and geothermal energy. This is a pressing issue, because many induced earthquakes occur in populated regions that are considered seismically dormant and unprepared for any form of strong shaking. At present, the underlying physical mechanisms of induced earthquakes remain elusive and current seismic hazard maps rely mostly on statistical analyses of existing earthquake catalogues. A quantitative predictive model requires deeper investigation into the physics of induced earthquakes.******My research program is to advance the understanding of seismic source processes and fault rupture dynamics, with a primary focus on induced seismicity. Recent advancements in seismic instrumentations and high-performance computing have allowed geoscientists to strive toward a more profound and practical understanding to earthquakes. In the next five years, we will address several key issues: (1) Characterizing the role of injection and frictional parameters in earthquake triggering, (2) Illuminating features of the host geological environment, (3) Modeling of the triggered ground motions, (4) Quantifying the effect of different possible triggering mechanisms on induced seismicity, (5) Characterizing the interplay of seismic and aseismic slip in long-term earthquake cycles.******The research will be innovative and distinct among induced seismicity studies by taking a holistic approach that investigates induced seismicity at multiple scales and from multiple angles by combining field observations, laboratory experiments, and computational modeling. The characterization of seismic sources through observables (field and lab data) will serve as the basis for constructing realistic physically-based predictive models with state-of-the-art numerical tools. The numerical models we use are governed by sophisticated empirical friction laws and will bridge the gap among seismic observations at various scales, bringing a comprehensive understanding to the physics of induced earthquakes.***Through international collaborations with seismologists and rock engineers, my program will contribute to improving hazard mitigation and to formulating clear industry regulations and investment strategies. Advancing the science of induced seismicity will also make significant contributions to our knowledge of large-magnitude earthquake nucleation and triggering in natural earthquakes.