Integrating the effects of complex environmental variation across levels of biological organization in marine ecosystems

人为温室气体排放已经对地球生物群产生了可测量的影响。然而，由于环境变化的模式和生物系统对这种变化的反应都是复杂的，对气候变化的生态反应往往很难预测。在海洋生态系统中，变化的两个主要驱动因素是全球变暖和海洋酸化。通常情况下，这两个驱动因素的影响是孤立的研究，他们的影响往往是调查一个物种的时间。这些方法，虽然相对直截了当地进行，可能会错过重要的细节有关的方式，环境压力相互作用，影响生物体的性能，以及生物体相互作用的方式，影响生态系统内的物种的分布和丰富度。我建议以变暖和OA之间的联系为目标，并研究它们对个体生物和相互作用的物种群体（社区）的综合影响。在生物体水平上，我将测试预测pH值降低会降低高温耐受性的理论。我还将评估环境变化的重要性，这是经常被研究人员忽视的典型或平均条件的变化。通过使用在当地适应特定环境条件或暴露于稳定或波动条件的各种组合的动物，我还将探索动物能够适应或适应其环境的程度，以避免同时变暖和酸化的特别破坏性后果。然后，我将把它扩大到相互作用的物种对，无论是植物和食草动物，竞争对手，还是宿主和寄生虫。例如，温度的轻微变化可以比光合作用和植物生长更快地增加食草动物和食草动物的生长速率。在某个时候，达到了一个临界点，消费者可以在当地消除他们的食物来源。我将测试这一临界点对其他变量变化的敏感性，特别是海洋酸化，沿着热变化在设定临界点中的作用。类似的实验将研究竞争和寄生关系对温度和海洋酸化同时变化的敏感性。最后，对野外真实的群落的实验和实地观察将决定生态理论在多大程度上能够预测复杂气候变化的结果。这些结果将有助于资源管理者和保护生物学家预测何时可能出现“生态惊喜”，并更好地理解遗传变异性和物种多样性在抵抗这种变化中的作用。**

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are already having measurable effects on the Earth's biota. However, because patterns of environmental change and the biological systems responding to that change are both complex, the ecological responses to climate change are often quite difficult to predict. In marine ecosystems, two of the primary drivers of change are global warming and ocean acidification (OA). Typically, the effects of these two drivers are studied in isolation, and their effects are often investigated one species at a time. These approaches, while relatively straight-forward to undertake, may miss important details relating to the ways in which environmental stressors interact to influence the performance of organisms, and the ways in which organisms interact to influence the distribution and abundance of species within an ecosystem. I propose to target the linkages between warming and OA, and study their combined influence on individual organisms and on interacting groups of species (communities). At the organismal level, I will test theory that predicts that decreasing pH reduces tolerance of high temperatures. I will also assess the importance of environmental variability, which is often overlooked by researchers focused on changes in typical or average conditions. By using animals that are locally adapted to particular environmental conditions or have been exposed to various combinations of stable or fluctuating conditions, I will also explore the extent to which animals can acclimate or adapt to their environment to avoid particularly damaging consequences of simultaneous warming and acidification. I will then scale this up to interacting pairs of species, be they plants and herbivores, competitors, or hosts and parasites. For example, slight changes in temperature can increase rates of grazer growth and herbivory faster than rate of photosynthesis and plant growth. At some point a tipping point is reached, and consumers can locally eliminate their food source. I will test the sensitivity of this tipping point to changes in other variables, particularly ocean acidification, along with the role of thermal variability in setting the tipping points in the first place. Analogous experiments will examine the sensitivity of competitive and parasitic relationships to simultaneous variation in temperature and ocean acidification. Finally, experiments and field observations on real communities in the wild will determine the degree to which ecological theory can predict the outcome of complex climate change. These results will help resource managers and conservation biologists anticipate when "ecological surprises" might actually be expected, and better understand the role of genetic variability and species diversity in resisting such changes. **