Integrating ecological responses to environmental variation across levels of biological organization

对生态学家来说，理解和预测生态对环境变化的反应是一项核心而艰巨的挑战。限制我们预测能力的主要信息差距包括1)环境变异性的作用(例如，环境波动的幅度、频率和时间)，2)同时或异步经历的多个应激源的影响，以及3)单个物种对环境强迫的反应总和转化为生物多样性和生态系统功能变化的方式。我的目标是通过弥合机械性生态生理学研究与社区和生态系统层面的成果之间的差距，更好地理解对气候变化和其他形式的环境变化的生态反应。在生物体层面，我和我的学生将通过操纵环境变化的频率和大小来测试关于先前压力暴露的成本和好处的预测。我们将评估包括温度、干燥和海洋酸化在内的多种压力因素对环境容忍极限的重要性，以及一个驱动因素的变化如何增加或减少对另一个驱动因素的脆弱性。从这些单一物种的研究，我们将扩大到测试植物-草食动物的相互作用如何受到复杂的环境变化影响的理论。具体地说，我们将测试这样的预测，即一个因素(温度)的变化会导致藻类产量失控或过度消费，但这种关系中的临界点将取决于第二个因素(海洋酸化)。我们还将通过在现场试验性地施加环境应激事件来扩大重复应激实验室的工作规模。在这样做的过程中，我们将研究2021年西部高温穹顶等事件的生态影响，这些事件对形成栖息地的物种产生了广泛的有害影响，以更好地了解这些事件在从短期恢复到较长期社区对随后极端高温的脆弱性的规模上的连锁反应。最后，我们将研究极端事件日益频繁所驱动的大范围变化模式。例如，我们将检验这样一个假设，即非土著海洋物种比不列颠哥伦比亚省本地海洋物种更适应温暖，具有更广泛的热生态位。此外，我们将通过实验探索物种更替的后果，因为进一步变暖有利于太平洋牡蛎等外来物种，而不是蓝贻贝等本地物种，这一群落转变可能对水过滤、当地多样性和生态弹性产生重要影响。这些相互关联的项目的结果将提高我们预测何时可能出现“生态惊喜”的能力，并使我们能够更好地了解关键物种在快速变化的世界中调节群落结构和生态系统功能变化的作用。

Understanding and anticipating ecological responses to environmental change is a central yet daunting challenge for ecologists. Major information gaps that limit our predictive ability include 1) the role of environmental variability (e.g., the magnitude, frequency, and timing of environmental fluctuations), 2) the impacts of multiple stressors experienced either simultaneously or asynchronously, and 3) the ways in which the sum of individual species' responses to environmental forcing translate to shifts in biodiversity and ecosystem function. My goal is to better understand ecological responses to climate change and other forms of environmental variation by bridging the gap between mechanistic ecophysiological studies and outcomes at the level of communities and ecosystems. At the organismal level, my students and I will test predictions regarding the costs and benefits of prior stress exposure by manipulating the frequency and magnitude of environmental variation. We will assess the importance of multiple stressors, including temperature, desiccation, and ocean acidification, on environmental tolerance limits, and how shifts in one driver may increase or decrease vulnerability to another. From these single species studies, we will scale up to test theory on how plant-herbivore interactions are influenced by complex changes in the environment. Specifically, we will test the prediction that shifts in one factor (temperature) can lead to runaway algal production or over-consumption, but that the tipping point in this relationship will shift depending on a second factor (ocean acidification). We will also scale up from repeat-stress laboratory work by experimentally imposing environmental stress events in the field. In so doing, we will study the ecological implications of events like the 2021 western heat dome, which had extensive detrimental effects on habitat-forming species, to better understand the ripple effects of these events at scales that range from short term recovery to longer term community vulnerability to subsequent thermal extremes. Finally, we will examine broad scale patterns of change that will be driven by the increasing frequency of extreme events. For example, we will test the hypothesis that non-indigenous marine species are more warm-adapted and have broader thermal niches than native marine species in British Columbia. Further, we will experimentally explore the consequences of species replacements as further warming favours exotic species like Pacific oysters over native species like blue mussels, a community shift which may have important consequences for water filtration, local diversity, and ecological resilience. The results of these inter-related projects will improve our ability to anticipate when "ecological surprises" might actually be expected, and allow us to better understand the role of key species in mediating changes in community structure and ecosystem function in a rapidly changing world.