Spatial patterns of the climate response to cumulative emissions

《巴黎气候协定》阐明了减缓气候变化的挑战，并强调有必要将全球气温上升幅度限制在比工业化前温度高1.5至2摄氏度之间。要实现这一雄心勃勃的目标，就需要协调一致、持续不断地努力减少温室气体排放，以尽量减少气候变化达到危险水平的风险。这些努力必须基于对气候系统将如何对人类温室气体排放作出反应，以及何种排放水平符合《巴黎协定》通过的气候目标的合理科学理解。******我提出的研究计划侧重于累积排放，作为理解和量化气候对人为排放的反应的关键指标。最近的研究表明，全球温度与累积二氧化碳排放量呈线性关系，这为预测气候影响和确定与全球气候目标相关的允许排放量提供了一个简单而有力的框架。我建议通过纳入有关气候变化空间格局的新信息来扩展这一累积排放框架，这将使全球和区域气候变化能够作为累积二氧化碳和其他温室气体排放的函数进行估计。这将代表着从目前的全球对累积排放的气候反应的新的区域分析向前迈出的重要一步，并有可能导致在人为排放和当地气候变化之间建立新的和迫切需要的定量联系，这些联系与将在变暖的世界中表现出来的预期影响、损失和损害直接相关。******因此，本研究计划的总体目标是扩大和发展我们对气候系统对累积温室气体排放的响应的理解，目的是在全球温室气体排放与由此产生的局部和区域气候影响之间建立连贯和定量的关系。这项研究对于支持《巴黎协定》的目标和为寻求在下一个世纪避免气候变化达到危险水平的减缓气候变化努力提供信息是非常必要的。

The Paris Climate Agreement has articulated the challenge of climate mitigation and emphasized the need to limit global temperature increases to between 1.5 and 2C above pre-industrial temperatures. Meeting this very ambitious goal will require concerted and sustained efforts to decrease greenhouse gas emissions so as to minimize the risks of dangerous levels of climate change. These efforts must be informed by a sound scientific understanding of how the climate system will respond to human greenhouse gas emissions, and what level of emissions are consistent with the climate targets that have been adopted in the Paris Agreement. ******My proposed research program focuses on cumulative emissions as a key metric to understand and quantify the climate response to anthropogenic emissions. Recent research has shown that global temperature responds linearly to cumulative CO2 emissions, which provides a simple yet powerful framework within which to predict climate impacts, and define the allowable emissions associated with global climate targets. I propose to expand this cumulative emissions framework by incorporating new information about the spatial patterns of climate change, which will allow both global and regional climate changes to be estimated as a function of cumulative CO2 and other greenhouse emissions. This will represent an important step forward from the current global to a new regional analysis of the climate response to cumulative emissions, and has the potential to lead to new and critically-needed quantitative links between anthropogenic emissions and the changes in local climate that are of direct relevance to the anticipated impacts, loss and damages that will manifest in a warming world. ****** The overall objective of this research program is therefore to expand and develop our understanding of the climate system response to cumulative greenhouse gas emissions, with the aim of building coherent and quantitative relationships between global greenhouse gas emissions and the resulting local and regional climate impacts. This research is critically needed to support the objectives of the Paris Agreement and to inform climate mitigation efforts seeking to avoid dangerous levels of climate change over the coming century.