Geometallurgical modeling of mining complexes: testing causal hypothesis to improve plant performance

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Raw materials such as metals and industrial minerals are required to sustain the current societal needs. Despite efforts towards recycling and reusing materials, the developing nations and the transition to the low-carbon economy requires new mining endeavours to satisfy the demand for metals and other strategic commodities such as rare earths elements. To make the mining industry as sustainable as possible, the extraction of raw materials must be effective and efficient. In order to achieve this, this research project proposes the development of predictive tools based on artificial intelligence, in collaboration with ArcelorMittal, a multinational steel manufacturing corporation. In particular, we propose developing causal models for each unit operation, in order to model the mining cycle as a system, that can be jointly analyzed and optimized. Causal models are mathematical models based on graphical representations and probability that facilitate the analysis of causal relationships. A graphical representation of a process entails identifying the input factors that have an effect on a response, and finding the links between these variables. The models then use statistical analysis to compute probability of events. A plausible causal model can be proposed and tested with the data available at the mine site. If the inference model is deemed correct, counterfactuals can be analyzed, that is, the probability of an unobserved phenomenon can be calculated. Therefore, these models allow decisions and predictions accounting for the possibility of scenarios that are not observed in the available data. This possibility will benefit the industry by improving the understanding of the processes and operations, and by allowing the prediction of responses of each unit operation during the process of the material extracted from the mine, therefore building an interconnected system of operations, that can be jointly optimized to increase efficiency, reduce the use of water and energy and minimize the waste generation.