Larval dispersal, population connectivity and species distributions in a changing ocean

世界海洋面临多重人为威胁，包括气候变化、栖息地丧失和入侵物种，对大多数区域产生重大影响。物种可以通过改变分布或改变生理事件的时间来对变暖做出反应。此外，生物和非生物资源的开发正在加速，而且发生在越来越深的地方，那里的物种分布和调节它们的因素仍然鲜为人知，从干扰中恢复可能需要数十年的时间。多重应激源的累积效应是全球海洋的一个主要关切，也是一个紧迫的研究重点。为了管理多种用途，海洋空间规划被用作一种工具，告知对海洋区域、生境或物种使用的地点、时间或类型的限制，并划定海洋保护区。全球变化和保护研究的重点是种群对扰动的适应能力和物种分布的变化。种群连通性是指种群之间通过分散或迁徙实现的个体交流，在决定物种分布和种群持久性方面可以发挥关键作用。通过拟议的计划，我们将结合现场采样、实验室实验和预测模型等方法，评估幼虫扩散和种群连通性在不断变化的海洋中物种分布中的作用。我们将使用两个涉及人为干预的模型系统，但它们在偏远程度和可用数据方面存在很大差异：海洋入侵生物膜膜藻，在未来气候情景下，它可能导致西北大西洋海藻生态系统的重大转变；深水珊瑚，这是独特的深海生态系统，目前因资源开采而受到物理干扰的威胁。海洋入侵显示出很高的扩散潜力，连通性将在调节分布变化方面发挥重要作用。对于深水珊瑚来说，种群的连通性可能是维持可生存种群的关键，特别是在面临人为干扰的情况下。该计划将在缺乏此类信息的领域提供能够影响管理决策的科学信息。

The world's oceans face multiple anthropogenic threats, including climate change, habitat loss and invasive species, with significant impacts in most regions. Species can respond to warming temperatures by shifts in distribution or changes in the timing of physiological events. Additionally, exploitation of living and non-living resources is accelerating, and occurring at increasing depths, where species' distributions and the factors that regulate them remain poorly-known, and recovery from disturbance can take many decades. The cumulative effects of multiple stressors represent a major concern for the global ocean, and an urgent research priority. To manage multiple uses, marine spatial planning is used as a tool to inform restrictions to location, timing or types of use for an ocean region, habitat or species, and to delineate marine reserves. Studies on global change and conservation focus on the resilience of populations to perturbations and on changes in species distributions. Population connectivity refers to the exchange of individuals among populations, achieved through dispersal or migration, and can play a critical role in determining species distributions and population persistence. With the proposed program, we will evaluate the role of larval dispersal and population connectivity in species distributions in a changing ocean, with a combination of approaches including field sampling, experiments in the laboratory and predictive modelling. We will use two model systems that involve human intervention but which vary greatly in remoteness and available data: a marine invasive, Membranipora membranacea, which under future climate scenarios can lead to major shifts in kelp ecosystems in the NW Atlantic; and deep-water corals, unique deep-sea ecosystems, currently under threat by physical disturbance due to resource extraction. The marine invasive exhibits high dispersal potential and connectivity will be significant in modulating shifts in distribution. For deep-water corals, population connectivity is likely critical in sustaining viable populations, particularly in the face of anthropogenic disturbance. This program wil provide scientific information that can influence management decisions, in arenas where such information is lacking.