Complex Systems Approach for Studying Spatiotemporal Patterns of Disturbance as a Result of Climate Change

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Disturbance events have an important role in ecosystem regulation, and are acknowledged to influence species diversity, plant succession and regeneration, the distribution and abundance of animal populations and nutrient concentration in a range of ecosystem types. Historically, in forest ecosystems, natural disturbances such as wildfire and storms act as major regulating forces and, more recently, human disturbances such as land use changes, forest management and timber harvesting have had a marked impact on forest extent and structure, and on the distribution and abundance species. Whether natural or anthropogenic, disturbance has the capacity to affect biodiversity via a number of mechanisms, including its influence on environmental heterogeneity. Although, forest ecosystems are constantly shaped by natural disturbances such as fires, insect infestations, diseases, windfall, among others, recent and more rapid climate changes have modified these disturbance regimes as well as the complex dynamics between forest ecosystems and their biodiversity. Disturbance regimes include disturbances at many intensities and scales, from the death of a single dominant tree to a catastrophic forest fire or insect infestation, all of which are embedded within climatic cycles that may span decades to millions of years. The disturbance regime of a particular forest usually consists of a complex mixture of infrequent, large-scale events and more frequent, small-scale events. A disturbance regime cannot be understood in isolation, but rather it is tied to the systems to which it is linked an ultimately to events within surrounding landscapes, the region, and the globe. Understanding the processes that drive changes to the landscape patterns and ecological complexity over time is critical for ensuring ecological, social and economic stability in many regions in the country. As complexity is inherent in ecological and anthropogenic processes, this research program aims to advance GIScience methods by developing complex systems modelling approaches that will be applicable in ecology to further our understanding about spatiotemporal dynamics driving changes in the Canadian forests and their biodiversity. This research agenda will integrate multiple statistical and mathematical methods to describe geographic patterns, as well as computational modelling approaches to simulate the effects of ecological and environmental change on forest ecosystems and their biodiversity. Modelling approaches such as cellular automata and agent-based combined with computational intelligence may hold the key to a better understanding of how disturbance regimes and their spatial patterns will vary in response to climate change. This knowledge is urgently needed in Canada to promote awareness of possible alterations in ecosystem function and services to support a range of policy and planning considerations.