INSPIRE: Integrated Disaster Cycle Approach for Catastrophic Earthquake Impact Reduction

加拿大很有可能在未来面临重大地震威胁。在加拿大东部，Charlevoix和魁北克西部地震带发生破坏性地震，预计类似事件将再次发生。在加拿大西部，不列颠哥伦比亚省面临着源自卡斯卡迪亚俯冲带的重大地震灾害和相关的次生灾害(如海啸和液化)。加拿大居民、应急管理人员和企业特别关注的情景是，卡斯卡迪亚未来将发生大地震，圣劳伦斯河(渥太华-蒙特利尔-魁北克市走廊)沿线将发生中等地震，这将产生大规模的多种危险级联，并同时影响人口和建筑环境。 Goda博士将通过实施创新的基于绩效的多风险工程方法并认识到灾害风险管理的三个主要阶段：缓解、准备、响应和恢复，为地震灾难开发综合减少灾害风险的工具。该计划将解决连锁灾害(震动-海啸-余震)，方法是对多重灾害的物理原因进行说明，并评估响应和恢复措施的有效性，以减轻影响并提高建筑环境的地震弹性。这些工具为在整个灾害周期内更有效地管理和减轻灾害风险提供了新的方法。 今后5年，重点关注以下短期目标：1)通过全面和一致地考虑与同时发生的灾害过程有关的不确定性，为与地震有关的现象制定一种综合的多灾害影响评估方法；2)将多灾害方法应用于加拿大和其他全球区域，以评估针对连锁地震灾害和风险的减灾准备情况；3)开发新一代基于风险的预警--疏散系统和用于应对的实时风险预报方法，以及4)为灾后恢复制定新的金融风险转移对策。OBJ。1构成了INSPIRE的核心创新，OBJ。2-4是如何应用所开发的工具，在灾难性地震风险的背景下为当前挑战提供创新解决方案的范例。 新的评估工具将改进目前编制震动和海啸危险地图的做法，这些地图是单独开发的，基于不同的方法、数据、假设和情景。它们还将用于设计新的预警和快速风险预测系统以及金融风险转移工具，以增强家庭、市政当局和保险公司的地震准备和抗震力。最终，该计划将使用与同一套地震情景和风险融资对策相对应的一致的多风险地图和评估，促进更强有力的自然灾害风险管理。

Canada has a high likelihood of facing significant earthquake threats in future. In Eastern Canada, damaging earthquakes occurred in the Charlevoix and Western Quebec seismic zones and recurrence of similar events is anticipated. In Western Canada, British Columbia is exposed to major seismic hazards and related secondary hazards (e.g. tsunami and liquefaction), originating from the Cascadia subduction zone. Scenarios of particular concern to Canadian residents, emergency managers and businesses are the future occurrences of a mega-thrust earthquake in Cascadia and a moderate earthquake along St Lawrence River (Ottawa-Montreal-Quebec City corridor), which will generate large-scale multi-hazard cascades and affect the population and built environment simultaneously. Dr Goda will develop integrated disaster risk reduction tools for earthquake catastrophes by implementing innovative performance-based multi-hazard engineering methods and recognizing three main phases of disaster risk management: mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery. The program will address cascading hazards (shaking-tsunami-aftershocks) by accounting for physical causes of the multi-hazards and by evaluating the effectiveness of response and recovery measures for mitigating impacts and enhancing seismic resilience of built environments. The tools enable new approaches for more efficient disaster risk management and mitigation over the entire disaster cycle. Over the next 5 years, the following short-term objectives are focused upon: 1) develop an integrated multi-hazard impact assessment methodology for cascading earthquake-related phenomena by accounting for uncertainties associated with concurrent hazard processes comprehensively and consistently; 2) apply the multi-hazard method to Canada and other global regions for assessing mitigation-preparedness against cascading seismic hazards and risks; 3) develop a new generation of risk-based early warning-evacuation systems and real-time risk forecasting methods for response, and 4) develop new financial risk transfer countermeasures for recovery. Obj. 1 constitutes the core innovation of INSPIRE, and Obj. 2-4 are the exemplars of how the developed tools can be applied to provide innovative solutions to current challenges in the context of catastrophic earthquake risk. The new assessment tools will improve current practices of preparing shaking and tsunami hazard maps, which are developed separately and are based on different methods, data, assumptions, and scenarios. They will also be used to design new early warning and rapid risk forecasting systems and financial risk transfer instrument to enhance the seismic preparedness and resilience of households, municipalities, and insurers. Ultimately, this program will promote more robust natural disaster risk management using consistent multi-hazard maps and assessments that correspond to the same set of earthquake scenarios and risk financing countermeasures.