INSPIRE: Integrated Disaster Cycle Approach for Catastrophic Earthquake Impact Reduction

加拿大未来极有可能面临重大地震威胁。在加拿大东部，沙勒沃瓦和魁北克西部地震带发生了破坏性地震，预计类似事件还会再次发生。在加拿大西部，不列颠哥伦比亚省暴露于主要的地震灾害和相关的次级灾害（如海啸和液化），这些灾害起源于卡斯卡迪亚俯冲带。加拿大居民、应急管理人员和企业特别关注的情况是，未来在卡斯卡迪亚发生大地震，在圣劳伦斯河（渥太华-蒙特利尔-魁北克城市走廊）沿岸发生中度地震，这将产生大规模的多灾害级联，同时影响人口和建筑环境。Goda博士将通过实施创新的基于性能的多灾种工程方法，并认识到灾害风险管理的三个主要阶段：减轻、准备、响应和恢复，开发用于地震灾害的综合灾害风险减少工具。该项目将解决级联灾害（震动-海啸-余震），方法是对多重灾害的物理原因进行解释，并评估缓解影响和增强建筑环境抗震能力的响应和恢复措施的有效性。这些工具为在整个灾害周期内更有效地管理和减轻灾害风险提供了新方法。在未来5年，重点关注以下短期目标：1)通过全面和一致地考虑与并发灾害过程相关的不确定性，开发一种针对级联地震相关现象的综合多灾害影响评估方法；2)将多灾害方法应用于加拿大和其他全球地区，以评估针对级联地震灾害和风险的减灾准备；3)开发新一代基于风险的预警疏散系统和实时风险预测应对方法；4)开发新的金融风险转移应对措施。Obj. 1是INSPIRE的核心创新，Obj. 2-4是如何将开发的工具应用于在灾难性地震风险背景下为当前挑战提供创新解决方案的范例。新的评估工具将改进目前编制地震和海啸灾害图的做法。地震和海啸灾害图是分别编制的，基于不同的方法、数据、假设和情景。它们还将用于设计新的早期预警和快速风险预测系统以及金融风险转移工具，以加强家庭、市政当局和保险公司的地震准备和恢复能力。最终，该项目将促进更强有力的自然灾害风险管理，使用与同一套地震情景和风险融资对策相对应的一致的多灾害地图和评估。

Canada has a high likelihood of facing significant earthquake threats in future. In Eastern Canada, damaging earthquakes occurred in the Charlevoix and Western Quebec seismic zones and recurrence of similar events is anticipated. In Western Canada, British Columbia is exposed to major seismic hazards and related secondary hazards (e.g. tsunami and liquefaction), originating from the Cascadia subduction zone. Scenarios of particular concern to Canadian residents, emergency managers and businesses are the future occurrences of a mega-thrust earthquake in Cascadia and a moderate earthquake along St Lawrence River (Ottawa-Montreal-Quebec City corridor), which will generate large-scale multi-hazard cascades and affect the population and built environment simultaneously. Dr Goda will develop integrated disaster risk reduction tools for earthquake catastrophes by implementing innovative performance-based multi-hazard engineering methods and recognizing three main phases of disaster risk management: mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery. The program will address cascading hazards (shaking-tsunami-aftershocks) by accounting for physical causes of the multi-hazards and by evaluating the effectiveness of response and recovery measures for mitigating impacts and enhancing seismic resilience of built environments. The tools enable new approaches for more efficient disaster risk management and mitigation over the entire disaster cycle. Over the next 5 years, the following short-term objectives are focused upon: 1) develop an integrated multi-hazard impact assessment methodology for cascading earthquake-related phenomena by accounting for uncertainties associated with concurrent hazard processes comprehensively and consistently; 2) apply the multi-hazard method to Canada and other global regions for assessing mitigation-preparedness against cascading seismic hazards and risks; 3) develop a new generation of risk-based early warning-evacuation systems and real-time risk forecasting methods for response, and 4) develop new financial risk transfer countermeasures for recovery. Obj. 1 constitutes the core innovation of INSPIRE, and Obj. 2-4 are the exemplars of how the developed tools can be applied to provide innovative solutions to current challenges in the context of catastrophic earthquake risk. The new assessment tools will improve current practices of preparing shaking and tsunami hazard maps, which are developed separately and are based on different methods, data, assumptions, and scenarios. They will also be used to design new early warning and rapid risk forecasting systems and financial risk transfer instrument to enhance the seismic preparedness and resilience of households, municipalities, and insurers. Ultimately, this program will promote more robust natural disaster risk management using consistent multi-hazard maps and assessments that correspond to the same set of earthquake scenarios and risk financing countermeasures.