Reducing aviation's impact on climate change - understanding effects of fuel and engine characteristics on formation of contrails

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Contributions to climate forcing (due to contrails and carbon dioxide) will be the main drivers that will shape the future of the aviation. Currently, there seems to be no viable prime mover that will replace the gas turbine as the preferred engine for the medium to long range commercial aircraft. It is most likely that for the foreseeable future these engines will be fueled by liquid hydrocarbons obtained from sustainable sources, i.e., sustainable aviation fuels. Contrail formation is a result of the soot aerosol in the engine exhaust acting as the nuclei to form ice particles. The current understanding is that the soot aerosols, any aqueous aerosols formed in the exhaust, and the ambient aerosols entrained into the plume act as nuclei to form ice crystals when water vapour in the plume becomes supersaturated because of the plume mixing with ambient cold air and cooling rapidly. The details of these processes involved in contrail formation are not known well, and there exist several knowledge gaps. The uncertainty associated with modelling its radiative forcing is very high due to a lack understanding nucleation of ice particles. Understanding these processes at a level that physical descriptions leading to realistic models is essential to simulate the aircraft induced contrail properties to predict their behaviour. The proposed project aims to contribute to the advancement of knowledge in contrail formation by addressing the knowledge gaps by means of a combined experimental and modelling effort supported by theoretical development of ice nucleation and growth. The deliverables of this research program will be a better physical description and improved models of contrail formation that can be used in contrail radiation forcing simulations decreasing the uncertainties in climate modelling. Results will help the Canadian gas turbine engine manufacturers to predict the impacts of engine exhaust and contrails on the environment and facilitate the decision-making and strategies for the potential of future aviation technologies such as hybrid electric, hydrogen, and sustainable aviation fuels aircraft.