Developing fisheries models of intermediate complexity to address spatial dynamics and species interactions

开发中等复杂度的渔业模型以解决空间动态和物种相互作用

• 批准号: RGPIN-2019-04045
• 负责人: McAllister, Murdoch
• 金额: $ 2.4万
• 依托单位: University of British Columbia
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2021-01-01 至 2022-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=737363
• 关键词: Developing; fisheries; models; intermediate; complexity

Models of intermediate complexity for ecosystem analysis (MICE) have been proposed as decision support tools for fisheries management. MICE limit complexity by focusing on ecosystem components that are required to address the main effects of the management questions of interest. MICE thereby address some of the impediments to wider use of ecosystem models in fisheries management. Despite their appeal, MICE have seen few applications due to the substantial data requirements for this approach and a scarcity of scientists with the computer modeling and statistical expertise required. Working with BC Ministry of Environment scientists my group developed a MICE that could evaluate yield outcomes of different fishery regulations for the Kootenay Lake trophy trout fishery. A model that included predator-prey interactions fitted the predator-prey abundance data better and predicted yields 25% higher than models that did not include predator-prey interactions. With the collapse of the trophy trout fishery in 2015, fishery managers have requested a MICE to evaluate the consequences of different management options that could rebuild the fishery. DFO and fishery stakeholders recently used management strategy evaluation (MSE) results for Atlantic redfish that were computed by my group to narrow the list of different management procedures (MPs) from over 30 to 5 for further consideration. Preliminary analyses suggested that range contraction in the stocks, i.e., decreases in spatial distribution coinciding with decreases in fish abundance, could imply that stock declines could be much less than assessed in the MSE. To increase the usefulness of MICE, I propose to investigate the following: (1) In a large lake ecosystem, i.e., Kootenay Lake, evaluate the effects of trophic and predator-prey interactions on the population dynamics of fish stocks and the yield and conservation outcomes of different MPs. My group will develop and apply a MICE that is fitted to data and will enable evaluations of different combinations of management actions to promote recovery of the recently collapsed trophy trout fishery. (2) For a widely distributed fish stock, i.e., Atlantic redfish, evaluate the effects of range contraction on assessed trends in abundance, population productivity and species interactions, and the yield and conservation outcomes of different MPs. My group will develop, fit to data and apply MICE to evaluate different MPs under joint scenarios for range contraction and species interactions. 2 MSc and 2 PhD students and one post doc will be trained in MICE and MSE modeling. The modeling results obtained in the proposed work could help to inform decisions that could restore and increase the value of the Kootenay Lake fishery by up to $10 million per year. If corrections were made to the redfish MSE to account for range contraction, sustainable yields and the associated wealth generated could be 20,000 t higher and $40 million higher per year.

生态系统分析（MICE）的中间复杂性模型已被提出作为渔业管理的决策支持工具。MICE通过专注于解决感兴趣的管理问题的主要影响所需的生态系统组件来限制复杂性。因此，会展旅游解决了在渔业管理中更广泛地使用生态系统模式的一些障碍。尽管他们的吸引力，MICE已经看到很少的应用程序，由于大量的数据要求，这种方法和缺乏科学家与计算机建模和统计专业知识所需的。我的小组与不列颠哥伦比亚省环境部的科学家合作，开发了一种MICE，可以评估库特奈湖鳟鱼渔业不同渔业法规的产量结果。一个模型，包括捕食者-猎物的相互作用，更好地拟合捕食者-猎物的丰度数据和预测产量比模型，不包括捕食者-猎物的相互作用高出25%。随着2015年战利品鳟鱼渔业的崩溃，渔业管理人员要求MICE评估可能重建渔业的不同管理方案的后果。DFO和渔业利益相关者最近使用了我的小组计算的大西洋红鱼管理战略评估（MSE）结果，将不同管理程序（MP）的列表从30多个缩小到5个，以供进一步考虑。初步分析表明，股票的范围收缩，即，如果在空间分布上的减少与鱼类丰度的减少相吻合，则可能意味着种群的减少可能比在MSE中估计的要少得多。为了提高MICE的有效性，我建议调查以下内容：（1）在一个大型湖泊生态系统中，即，Kootenay湖，评估营养和捕食者-猎物相互作用对鱼类种群的种群动态以及不同MP的产量和保护结果的影响。我的小组将开发和应用一个适合数据的MICE，并将能够评估不同的管理行动组合，以促进最近崩溃的鳟鱼渔业的恢复。(2)对于广泛分布的鱼类种群，即，大西洋红鱼，评估范围收缩的影响，评估趋势的丰度，人口生产力和物种的相互作用，产量和保护结果的不同MP。我的小组将开发，适合数据和应用MICE来评估不同的MP范围收缩和物种相互作用的联合方案。2名硕士和2名博士生和一名博士后将接受MICE和MSE建模培训。在拟议工作中获得的建模结果可能有助于为恢复和增加库特奈湖渔业价值的决策提供信息，每年可增加1000万美元。如果对红鱼MSE进行修正以解释范围收缩，可持续产量和产生的相关财富每年可增加20，000吨和4000万美元。