Developing fisheries models of intermediate complexity to address spatial dynamics and species interactions

开发中等复杂度的渔业模型以解决空间动态和物种相互作用

• 批准号: RGPIN-2019-04045
• 负责人: Mcallister, Murdoch
• 金额: $ 2.4万
• 依托单位: University of British Columbia
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2019-01-01 至 2020-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=684635
• 关键词: Developing; fisheries; models; intermediate; complexity

Models of intermediate complexity for ecosystem analysis (MICE) have been proposed as decision support tools for fisheries management. MICE limit complexity by focusing on ecosystem components that are required to address the main effects of the management questions of interest. MICE thereby address some of the impediments to wider use of ecosystem models in fisheries management. Despite their appeal, MICE have seen few applications due to the substantial data requirements for this approach and a scarcity of scientists with the computer modeling and statistical expertise required. Working with BC Ministry of Environment scientists my group developed a MICE that could evaluate yield outcomes of different fishery regulations for the Kootenay Lake trophy trout fishery. A model that included predator-prey interactions fitted the predator-prey abundance data better and predicted yields 25% higher than models that did not include predator-prey interactions. With the collapse of the trophy trout fishery in 2015, fishery managers have requested a MICE to evaluate the consequences of different management options that could rebuild the fishery. DFO and fishery stakeholders recently used management strategy evaluation (MSE) results for Atlantic redfish that were computed by my group to narrow the list of different management procedures (MPs) from over 30 to 5 for further consideration. Preliminary analyses suggested that range contraction in the stocks, i.e., decreases in spatial distribution coinciding with decreases in fish abundance, could imply that stock declines could be much less than assessed in the MSE. To increase the usefulness of MICE, I propose to investigate the following: (1) In a large lake ecosystem, i.e., Kootenay Lake, evaluate the effects of trophic and predator-prey interactions on the population dynamics of fish stocks and the yield and conservation outcomes of different MPs. My group will develop and apply a MICE that is fitted to data and will enable evaluations of different combinations of management actions to promote recovery of the recently collapsed trophy trout fishery. (2) For a widely distributed fish stock, i.e., Atlantic redfish, evaluate the effects of range contraction on assessed trends in abundance, population productivity and species interactions, and the yield and conservation outcomes of different MPs. My group will develop, fit to data and apply MICE to evaluate different MPs under joint scenarios for range contraction and species interactions. 2 MSc and 2 PhD students and one post doc will be trained in MICE and MSE modeling. The modeling results obtained in the proposed work could help to inform decisions that could restore and increase the value of the Kootenay Lake fishery by up to $10 million per year. If corrections were made to the redfish MSE to account for range contraction, sustainable yields and the associated wealth generated could be 20,000 t higher and $40 million higher per year.

中等复杂性的生态系统分析(MICE)模型已被提出作为渔业管理的决策支持工具。MICE通过专注于解决感兴趣的管理问题的主要影响所需的生态系统组件来限制复杂性。因此，MICE解决了在渔业管理中更广泛地使用生态系统模型的一些障碍。尽管MICE很有吸引力，但由于这种方法需要大量数据，而且缺乏具备所需计算机建模和统计专业知识的科学家，MICE几乎没有什么应用。与不列颠哥伦比亚省环境部的科学家合作，我的团队开发了一种小鼠，可以评估库特奈湖战利品鲑鱼渔业不同渔业法规的产量结果。一个包含捕食者-猎物交互作用的模型更好地拟合了捕食者-猎物丰度数据，预测产量比不包括捕食者-猎物交互作用的模型高25%。随着2015年战利品鲑鱼渔业的崩溃，渔业管理者要求MICE评估可能重建渔业的不同管理方案的后果。DFO和渔业利益攸关方最近利用我的小组计算的大西洋红鱼管理战略评估(MSE)结果，将不同管理程序(MPS)的清单从30多个缩小到5个，以供进一步考虑。初步分析表明，种群的范围收缩，即空间分布的减少与鱼类丰度的减少相一致，这可能意味着种群的下降可能比在MSE中评估的要小得多。为了增加小鼠的有用性，我建议进行以下研究：(1)在一个大型湖泊生态系统中，即库特奈湖，评估营养和捕食-被捕食相互作用对鱼类种群动态以及不同MPS的产量和保护结果的影响。我的小组将开发和应用一种符合数据的老鼠，并将能够评估不同的管理行动组合，以促进最近崩溃的战利品鲑鱼渔业的复苏。(2)对于广泛分布的鱼类种群，即大西洋红鱼，评估范围缩小对评估的丰度趋势、种群生产力和物种相互作用的影响，以及不同MPS的产量和养护结果。我的团队将开发、适应数据并应用小鼠在范围收缩和物种相互作用的联合情景下评估不同的MPS。2名硕士和2名博士生和1名博士后将接受小鼠和MSE建模方面的培训。拟议工作中获得的建模结果可帮助作出决定，恢复库特奈湖渔业的价值并使其每年增加高达1000万美元。如果对红鱼的MSE进行修正，以解决范围收缩的问题，可持续的产量和相关的财富每年可能高出2万吨和4000万美元。