Developing fisheries models of intermediate complexity to address spatial dynamics and species interactions

开发中等复杂度的渔业模型以解决空间动态和物种相互作用

• 批准号: RGPIN-2019-04045
• 负责人: McAllister, Murdoch
• 金额: $ 2.4万
• 依托单位: University of British Columbia
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=761614
• 关键词: Developing; fisheries; models; intermediate; complexity

Models of intermediate complexity for ecosystem analysis (MICE) have been proposed as decision support tools for fisheries management. MICE limit complexity by focusing on ecosystem components that are required to address the main effects of the management questions of interest. MICE thereby address some of the impediments to wider use of ecosystem models in fisheries management. Despite their appeal, MICE have seen few applications due to the substantial data requirements for this approach and a scarcity of scientists with the computer modeling and statistical expertise required. Working with BC Ministry of Environment scientists my group developed a MICE that could evaluate yield outcomes of different fishery regulations for the Kootenay Lake trophy trout fishery. A model that included predator-prey interactions fitted the predator-prey abundance data better and predicted yields 25% higher than models that did not include predator-prey interactions. With the collapse of the trophy trout fishery in 2015, fishery managers have requested a MICE to evaluate the consequences of different management options that could rebuild the fishery. DFO and fishery stakeholders recently used management strategy evaluation (MSE) results for Atlantic redfish that were computed by my group to narrow the list of different management procedures (MPs) from over 30 to 5 for further consideration. Preliminary analyses suggested that range contraction in the stocks, i.e., decreases in spatial distribution coinciding with decreases in fish abundance, could imply that stock declines could be much less than assessed in the MSE. To increase the usefulness of MICE, I propose to investigate the following: (1) In a large lake ecosystem, i.e., Kootenay Lake, evaluate the effects of trophic and predator-prey interactions on the population dynamics of fish stocks and the yield and conservation outcomes of different MPs. My group will develop and apply a MICE that is fitted to data and will enable evaluations of different combinations of management actions to promote recovery of the recently collapsed trophy trout fishery. (2) For a widely distributed fish stock, i.e., Atlantic redfish, evaluate the effects of range contraction on assessed trends in abundance, population productivity and species interactions, and the yield and conservation outcomes of different MPs. My group will develop, fit to data and apply MICE to evaluate different MPs under joint scenarios for range contraction and species interactions. 2 MSc and 2 PhD students and one post doc will be trained in MICE and MSE modeling. The modeling results obtained in the proposed work could help to inform decisions that could restore and increase the value of the Kootenay Lake fishery by up to $10 million per year. If corrections were made to the redfish MSE to account for range contraction, sustainable yields and the associated wealth generated could be 20,000 t higher and $40 million higher per year.

中等复杂性生态系统分析模型（MICE）已被提出作为渔业管理的决策支持工具。MICE通过关注解决感兴趣的管理问题的主要影响所需的生态系统组成部分来限制复杂性。因此，会议解决了在渔业管理中更广泛地使用生态系统模型的一些障碍。尽管它们很有吸引力，但是由于这种方法需要大量的数据，而且缺乏具备所需的计算机建模和统计专业知识的科学家，因此MICE的应用很少。与BC省环境部的科学家合作，我的小组开发了一个MICE，可以评估库特尼湖鳟鱼渔业不同渔业法规的产量结果。包含捕食者-猎物相互作用的模型更符合捕食者-猎物丰度数据，预测产量比不包含捕食者-猎物相互作用的模型高25%。随着2015年鳟鱼渔业的崩溃，渔业管理者要求一个MICE来评估不同管理方案的后果，这些方案可以重建渔业。DFO和渔业利益相关者最近使用我的小组计算的大西洋红鱼管理策略评估（MSE）结果，将不同管理程序（MPs）的列表从30多个缩小到5个，以供进一步考虑。初步分析表明，鱼类种群的范围缩小，即空间分布的减少与鱼类丰度的减少相一致，可能意味着鱼类种群的减少可能远小于MSE的评估。(1)在库特尼湖（Kootenay lake）这一大型湖泊生态系统中，评价营养和捕食-食饵相互作用对鱼类种群动态的影响以及不同MPs的产量和保护结果。我的小组将开发和应用一个适合数据的MICE，并将能够评估不同的管理行动组合，以促进最近崩溃的战利品鳟鱼渔业的恢复。(2)对于分布广泛的鱼类，如大西洋红鱼，评估范围收缩对丰度、种群生产力和物种相互作用的评估趋势以及不同MPs的产量和保护结果的影响。我的团队将开发、拟合数据并应用MICE来评估范围收缩和物种相互作用联合情景下的不同MPs。2名硕士生、2名博士生和1名博士后将接受MICE和MSE建模方面的培训。在提议的工作中获得的建模结果可以帮助为决定提供信息，这些决定可以恢复和增加库特尼湖渔业的价值，每年可达1000万美元。如果对红鱼MSE进行修正以解释范围收缩，可持续产量和相关财富每年可增加20,000吨，每年可增加4,000万美元。