Summer Extreme Weather: Improving Climatologies, Prediction and Assessments of Future Climate

夏季极端天气：改善未来气候的气候学、预测和评估

• 批准号: RGPIN-2021-03342
• 负责人: Hanesiak, John
• 金额: $ 2.62万
• 依托单位: University of Manitoba
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2021-01-01 至 2022-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=742504
• 关键词: Summer; Extreme; Weather; Improving; Climatologies

My research program focuses on one of society's major challenges, dealing with summer extreme weather and its future change, that has profound impacts on society. Weather-related disasters and associated insurance payouts are on the rise across Canada with climate change being one likely reason. The overarching goal of the proposed research program is to improve our knowledge and prediction capabilities of warm season severe weather and how these events may change in a future climate. This work covers a range from daily short--duration storm events to future climate change variations in southern Canada, with a focus on deep convective tornadic storms.  Research objectives will be addressed to achieve the overarching goal: (1) To better understand Western Canada's tornado risk through analysis of current tornado statistics - an updated actual Canadian tornado climatology analysis is needed using the most current database; this research will address this need via collaborations with the Northern Tornadoes Project (NTP; uwo.ca/ntp) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), (2) Improve knowledge of tornadic events via analysis of historic events - analysis of past tornadic events will be conducted to better understand their synoptic and mesoscale environments; this will be done using all available meteorological and radar data, and targeted model simulations. Based on my operational and years of storm-chasing experience, I understand that the Canadian tornado environment can be different than U.S. events, and many U.S. Storm Prediction Centers' diagnostics are U.S.-specific and do not apply in Canada for all situations. The proposed research will address this in a quantitative way, 3) Ongoing collaborations with researchers and partners in Global Water Futures (GWF; https://gwf.usask.ca) is strictly focused on analysis of future (end of century) changes in southern Canada hail characteristics -- this is done using 4 km convection--allowing dynamically-downscaled climate simulations via collaboration with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The proposed NSERC work will use the NCAR simulations to examine future changes in tornadic storm environments. Two Masters and one PhD student will be dedicated to the objectives and work with collaborators. Ongoing collaboration with CatIQ and Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction will provide the insurance sector with state--of--the--art Canadian future severe weather and tornado projections through frequent consultations and meetings to ensure our information are tailored for their use. Collaborations within GWF will provide these results to other weather and climate sensitive sectors as well. Ongoing collaboration with ECCC will continue to contribute to improved knowledge and prediction of Canadian tornadic storms. This research will therefore result in benefits to the insurance, power, agriculture and public safety sectors who depend on weather and climate predictions.

我的研究项目集中在社会的主要挑战之一，应对夏季极端天气及其未来的变化，这对社会产生了深远的影响。与天气有关的灾害和相关的保险赔付在加拿大各地都在上升，气候变化可能是一个原因。拟议研究计划的总体目标是提高我们对暖季恶劣天气的知识和预测能力，以及这些事件在未来气候中可能发生的变化。这项工作涵盖了从每日短期风暴事件到加拿大南部未来气候变化的范围，重点是深对流龙卷风风暴。研究目标将被提出，以实现总体目标：(1)通过分析当前的龙卷风统计数据，更好地了解加拿大西部的龙卷风风险-需要使用最新的数据库进行更新的实际加拿大龙卷风气候学分析；这项研究将通过与北方龙卷风项目(NTP；(2)通过对历史事件的分析来增进对龙卷风事件的了解--将对过去的龙卷风事件进行分析，以更好地了解其天气和中尺度环境；这将利用所有现有的气象和雷达数据以及有针对性的模式模拟来完成。根据我的业务和多年的风暴追逐经验，我了解加拿大的龙卷风环境可能与美国的事件不同，许多美国风暴预测中心的诊断是针对美国的，并不适用于加拿大的所有情况。拟议的研究将以定量的方式解决这一问题，3)与全球水未来的研究人员和合作伙伴正在进行的合作；https://gwf.usask.ca)严格专注于分析未来(本世纪末)加拿大南部冰雹特征的变化--这是利用4公里对流完成的--通过与国家大气研究中心的合作，实现动态缩小尺度的气候模拟。拟议的NSERC工作将使用NCAR模拟来检查龙卷风风暴环境中未来的变化。两名硕士和一名博士生将致力于这些目标，并与合作者合作。与CatIQ和减少灾难性损失研究所的持续合作将通过频繁的磋商和会议，为保险行业提供最先进的加拿大未来恶劣天气和龙卷风预测，以确保我们的信息适合他们的使用。全球气候论坛内部的合作也将把这些成果提供给其他对天气和气候敏感的部门。与ECCC正在进行的合作将继续有助于改进对加拿大龙卷风风暴的了解和预测。因此，这项研究将使依赖天气和气候预报的保险、电力、农业和公共安全部门受益。