From behaviour to demography: capacity of large terrestrial mammals to cope with HIREC in boreal ecosystems

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Traditionally structured by natural disturbances (wildfires, insect outbreaks), boreal forest ecosystems are now dominated by human-induced rapid environmental changes (HIREC: e.g. logging, roads, oil and gas) that override natural disturbances, forcing wildlife to adapt to a changing environment also affected by rapid climate change. It is of utmost importance to improve our understanding of the influence of these drivers of environmental change on species - habitat relationships, species interactions (predation, competition) and population dynamics (decline, range contraction) to guide conservation efforts while advancing knowledge in animal ecology. My research program aims at answering a fundamental question in conservation ecology: are species able to cope with (and ultimately adapt to) HIREC, and if so, how? I use woodland caribou, an irreplaceable component of Canada's biodiversity, as a biological model, and I also study the responses of its predators (wolf, black bear, coyote) and its main competitors (moose, deer). I use GPS telemetry to describe behaviour and monitor vital rates on an individual basis along a gradient of natural and anthropogenic disturbance intensity in study areas totalling ~375,000 km2. Over the next 5 years, my goal is to improve our understanding of the relationships between individual variation in behaviour and adaptive value in a changing environment. Building upon our recent findings, I propose the training of seven graduate students (4 MSc, 3 PhD) involved in the following 4 interrelated short-term objectives: 1) Determine the influence of behavioural marginality (i.e. behaving differently than other individuals of the same population) on survival along a disturbance gradient; 2) Evaluate the effect of historical exposure (~300 years) to natural disturbance (e.g. wildfires) on the behaviour - survival relationship; 3) Document the role of past experience in adjusting behavioural response toward disturbance during an animal's life; 4) Explore the additive or synergistic effects of local climate on behavioural response to disturbances. These objectives will test the hypothesis that large mammals have different capacities to "learn to cope with" and ultimately adapt to cumulative disturbances and changing climate, thus paving the way for further eco-evolutionary questions. My research program already contributes to the improvement of conservation strategies for boreal (Threatened) and Atlantic-Gaspésie (Endangered) caribou, two ecotypes that have a major influence on the development of socioeconomic activities across the country. I believe that my scientific involvement in further understanding the causes of the generalized caribou population decline will provide scientifically supported solutions to mitigate the impacts of global changes on wildlife, modify laws and regulation at the national scale, and reconcile the socioeconomic and environmental poles of sustainable development in managed boreal forests.