Probabilistic Models for Infrastructure Risk Assessment and Management in the Changing Climate

气候变化中基础设施风险评估和管理的概率模型

• 批准号: RGPIN-2022-03556
• 负责人: Pandey, Mahesh
• 金额: $ 3.79万
• 依托单位: University of Waterloo
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=748824
• 关键词: Probabilistic; Models; Infrastructure; Risk; Assessment

Infrastructure is central to the daily life of every Canadian - from buildings, bridges, and water supply to transportation networks and energy systems, all are vital to the economic growth, health and safety, and quality of life of our communities. Concerns over the aging of existing infrastructure, largely built in the mid-20th century, have prompted research into structural reliability and risk assessment methods for guiding infrastructure renewal strategies. Otherwise, in the absence of timely mitigation of deterioration, the risk of failures is bound to increase, as evidenced by the collapse of a multistorey building in Miami, Florida (June 2021), the collapse of the Morandi bridge in Genoa, Italy (August 2018), and the failure of a concrete slab in a traffic tunnel in Montreal (August 2011). The increasing pace of climate change aggravates the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, threatening the existing infrastructure, impacting its effectiveness, reducing lifespan, and adding to the cost of repair and renewal. For example, a crippling ice storm in Texas (February 2021), a record-setting heatwave that pushed temperatures to dangerous levels of nearly 50 C in Lytton, BC (June 2021), and unprecedented rainfall and floods in Western Europe (15 July 2021) and those caused by hurricane Ida in the United States (31 August 2021) killed many people and caused huge property damage. Thus, the increased severity of weather extremes exacerbates the risk of failure of aging infrastructure. To respond to this cumulative threat, the next phase of research is proposed to improve safety and resilience through design and life cycle management of Canadian infrastructure assets founded on a robust assessment of risks posed by the changing climate. The scientific core of this proposal is based on the probability theory and stochastic processes that can model uncertain and non-stationary loads resulting from climate change and various forms of aging-related degradation of structures. These models will predict future reliability and risk and evaluate the effects of maintenance and rehabilitation on safety and resilience through optimized investments over the life cycle of a system. As the "non-stationary" nature of the changing climate is incompatible with the assumption of stationarity used by existing structural design codes, the proposed research will generate the knowledge base to revise many provisions related to extreme load distributions, reliability metrics, design factors, and load combination rules, and lead the development of the next generation of codes. In summary, the next five-year phase of this research program will continue to build on the success of the previous research work and discover new methods and tools for risk analysis and management of infrastructure. The training of seven graduate students in the advanced areas of probabilistic risk and reliability will be a significant outcome of the proposed program.

基础设施是每个加拿大人日常生活的核心-从建筑物，桥梁和供水到交通网络和能源系统，所有这些都对我们社区的经济增长，健康和安全以及生活质量至关重要。对现有基础设施老化的担忧，主要是在世纪中期建造的，促使研究结构可靠性和风险评估方法，以指导基础设施更新战略。否则，如果不及时缓解恶化，故障风险必然会增加，佛罗里达迈阿密多层建筑倒塌（2021年6月）、意大利热那亚莫兰迪大桥倒塌（2018年8月）、蒙特利尔交通隧道混凝土板断裂（2011年8月）就是明证。气候变化的速度越来越快，加剧了极端天气事件的强度和频率，威胁到现有的基础设施，影响其有效性，缩短寿命，并增加了维修和更新的成本。例如，德克萨斯州的一场严重冰风暴（2021年2月）、不列颠哥伦比亚省利顿的一场创纪录的热浪将气温推高至近50摄氏度的危险水平（2021年6月）、西欧前所未有的降雨和洪水（2021年7月15日）以及飓风艾达在美国造成的降雨和洪水（2021年8月31日）造成许多人死亡并造成巨大财产损失。因此，极端天气的严重性增加，加剧了老化基础设施故障的风险。为了应对这种累积的威胁，下一阶段的研究建议通过对加拿大基础设施资产的设计和生命周期管理来提高安全性和复原力，这些资产建立在对气候变化带来的风险进行强有力的评估的基础上。这一建议的科学核心是基于概率论和随机过程，可以模拟气候变化和各种形式的与老化有关的结构退化造成的不确定和非平稳负荷。这些模型将预测未来的可靠性和风险，并通过优化系统生命周期内的投资，评估维护和修复对安全和复原力的影响。由于气候变化的“非平稳”性质与现有结构设计规范所使用的平稳性假设不相容，因此拟议的研究将产生知识库，以修改与极端荷载分布、可靠性指标、设计系数和荷载组合规则相关的许多规定，并引领下一代规范的发展。总之，该研究计划的下一个五年阶段将继续建立在以前研究工作的成功基础上，并发现基础设施风险分析和管理的新方法和工具。在概率风险和可靠性的先进领域的七名研究生的培训将是拟议的计划的一个重要成果。