Risk-Based Models for Infrastructure Asset Management

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Canada, like other industrialized nations, devoted a large part of the 20th century into building modern infrastructure systems, such as power plants, pipelines, electrical networks, bridges, water distribution and waste-disposal systems. These technologically advanced infrastructure systems boosted productivity and prosperity, and led to an unprecedented level of quality of life in Canada. In the era of new-build, mainstream researchers focused on developing mechanistic models, design standards and construction technology. ***In the 21st century, however, the emerging challenge is how to manage the safety and reliability of the aged infrastructure systems, given that their immediate replacement or refurbishment is not possible due to the inordinate amount of required resources. In the absence of timely mitigation of deterioration, the risk of failures is bound to increase, as evidenced by the collapse of an overpass in Laval (September 30th, 2006) and a tunnel in Montreal (August 1, 2011). Therefore, safety management requires not only on an accurate prediction of deterioration, but also a timely investment in repair and maintenance actions. In addition, prudent operational management and prediction of hazards are equally important. The recent train disaster (July 6, 2013) in Lac-Megantic illustrates the need for minimizing risks through careful operational management of infrastructure systems. Furthermore, the Fukushima earthquake in March 2011 that destroyed a nuclear power plant and many other structures, underscores the need for accurate estimation of extreme hazards. ******Thus, the degraded infrastructure combined with the increased frequency of extreme events (rain, flood, wind and ice storms) is emerging as a threat to the economic development and quality of life in Canada. As a result, the economic life cycle management of infrastructure assets supported by high quality assessment of emerging risks is a critical area of research that is to be undertaken in the proposed research program.. ******At the core of managing structural safety is the ability to predict degradation, which is an intrinsically random process marred with temporal and sampling uncertainties. For example, stress corrosion cracking and fatigue causing the sudden failure of components are known to exhibit large uncertainties even in controlled laboratory tests. The proposed research will undertake comprehensive probabilistic modeling of such degradation mechanisms. This work will be integrated with an life cycle management to optimize the inspection, maintenance and refurbishment programs. ***  ***In summary, the next five year phase of this research program will continue to build on the success of the previous research work and discover new methods and tools for advanced risk analysis and management of infrastructure that will foster the safety, economic development, and quality of life in the Canadian society. **