Probabilistic modelling and Quantification of Natural Hazards and Multi-risk at Site and Regional levels

现场和区域层面自然灾害和多重风险的概率建模和量化

• 批准号: RGPIN-2022-04702
• 负责人: Hong, Hanping
• 金额: $ 3.79万
• 依托单位: University of Western Ontario
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=749063
• 关键词: Probabilistic; modelling; Quantification; Natural; Hazards

Extreme earthquakes and climate conditions cause fatalities, damages to buildings and infrastructure, and economic losses. The structural design requirements for earthquake and climatic loads in codes and standards represent the minimum acceptable measures required to achieve adequate life safety. The loads are calibrated for selected target reliability by considering individual structure or structural members and the statistics of natural hazards. However, all buildings and infrastructure systems in a region are subjected to the same extreme natural event, potentially leading to the collapse of multiple structures. This has serious societal implications since the public reaction to disasters indicates that design by considering the safety of a single structure alone is important but may not be in the best societal interest for a region with spatially distributed buildings and infrastructure systems. Moreover, the current Canadian structural design codes are not cognizant of climate change effects. The proposed research program is to develop risk-based optimal design and retrofit criteria for structures and infrastructure systems to minimize natural disasters and improve societal resilience. The research will advance the knowledge on the effects of extreme weather storms and strong earthquake ground motions on the risk of a group of structures. It integrates advanced climate change modelling results and risk modelling techniques. The program is to: A) Model and map the spatially correlated Canadian climate hazards (i.e., wind, snow, and ice accretion) that include climate change effects and intraevent correlation; B) Model and compare mapped Canadian seismic hazard using different seismic source models, and develop stochastic models and simulation techniques for spatially varying multi-component spatially correlated seismic ground motions; C) Estimate the multi-risk of buildings and infrastructure systems at the regional levels by including climate change effects; and D) Develop and recommend natural loads for design and evaluating structures that are cognizant of climate change effect and regional hazard sensitive. The novelties of the proposal include advancing new climatic hazard models that consider spatial correlation, storm motion, and climate change effects; a better understanding of Canadian seismic hazard; developing new models and simulation techniques for multi-directional spatially correlated stochastic ground motions; quantifying the risk of structures or infrastructure systems subjected extreme natural events; and recommending structural design loads that are information-sensitive, risk-consistent and climate change cognizant. The funding requested for the research program is to support and train 10 PhD and 2 MESc graduate students who will contribute to the society's effort to reduce natural disasters and to build and maintain a resilient society under the threat of natural hazards and by including climate change effects.

极端地震和气候条件会造成人员死亡、建筑物和基础设施受损以及经济损失。规范和标准中对地震和气候荷载的结构设计要求代表了实现足够生命安全所需的最低可接受措施。通过考虑单个结构或结构构件和自然灾害统计，对选定的目标可靠度进行荷载校准。然而，一个地区的所有建筑和基础设施系统都受到相同的极端自然事件的影响，可能导致多个结构的倒塌。这具有严重的社会影响，因为公众对灾害的反应表明，仅考虑单个结构的安全性的设计很重要，但对于具有空间分布的建筑和基础设施系统的地区来说，可能不符合最佳的社会利益。此外，目前加拿大的结构设计规范没有认识到气候变化的影响。拟议的研究计划是为结构和基础设施系统制定基于风险的优化设计和改造标准，以最大限度地减少自然灾害并提高社会复原力。这项研究将促进对极端天气风暴和强烈地震地面运动对一组结构风险影响的认识。它整合了先进的气候变化模拟结果和风险模拟技术。该计划是：A)模拟和绘制空间相关的加拿大气候灾害（即风、雪和冰的增加），包括气候变化影响和事件内相关性；B)利用不同震源模型对加拿大地震灾害进行建模和比较，开发空间变化多分量空间相关地震地面运动的随机模型和模拟技术；C)通过纳入气候变化影响，估算区域层面建筑物和基础设施系统的多重风险；D)开发和推荐自然荷载，用于设计和评估认识到气候变化影响和对区域灾害敏感的结构。该提案的新颖之处包括提出了考虑空间相关性、风暴运动和气候变化影响的新的气候灾害模型；更好地了解加拿大的地震危害；发展多向空间相关随机地面运动模型和模拟新技术；量化结构或基础设施系统遭受极端自然事件的风险；并推荐对信息敏感、风险一致和气候变化敏感的结构设计负荷。本项目拟资助培养10名博士研究生和2名硕士研究生，为减少自然灾害、在自然灾害威胁和气候变化影响下建立和维持一个有复原力的社会做出贡献。