Multi-hazard risk assessment and resilience of infrastructure in a changing climate

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Natural hazards, such as earthquakes, floods, and tornadoes impact every part of the world including Canada leaving people and built infrastructure vulnerable to natural forces.160 major events have already occurred in the province of Ontario in the period of 1900-2013, suggesting that the built infrastructure will be subjected to at least one major event per year during its lifetime. The Insurance Bureau of Canada estimates an average loss of $1.8 billion between 2009 and 2017 related to climate change and extreme weather events. On the top of that, Canada's infrastructure has aged (more than 40 years old) that increases their vulnerability to future events (aging-associated failures). Therefore, there is an increase of the urban risk from natural disasters and climate change, which can lead to huge economic losses if Canadian infrastructures fail to build their resilience to natural disasters. In the short-term, the proposed research program is structured to enable multi-hazard risk assessment and resilience quantification of bridges for current and projected climate conditions. Focus Area I will develop multi-hazard time-dependent fragility models for risk assessment. Focus Area II will propose models for component-level resilience quantification. Focus Area III will expand the previous frameworks from component- to system- and network-level risk and resilience, and will propose resilient-based approaches for the design of bridges. In the long-term, the developed methodologies will form the basis for the systematic risk assessment of interdependent/interconnected infrastructure, towards the resilience of Canadian communities in the face of climate change. The proposed research program will inspire and provide specialized training of highly qualified personnel (HQP) that is tailored to meet the global needs for reliable risk assessment, resilience quantification, and decision making of the future civil engineering infrastructure. Overall, climate change has a profound impact in the occurrence of extreme weather events, with clear implications for Canada's built infrastructure. Thus, the proposed research program aims to provide robust tools for multi-hazard risk and resilience of civil engineering infrastructure. These outcomes will help industries and different levels of government in Canada to enhance their preparedness for, response to, and resilience under, extreme events in the face of climate change.