Determining Vulnerability and Resiliance of Fractured Aquifers to Pathogens: A Network-Based Approach

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Thirty-three percent of Canadians use groundwater for their drinking water. This number rises to 70% in rural areas. Groundwater can become contaminated by pathogens that make people sick, and this is more likely to occur where the water is stored in karst or fractured rock. Although more than two thirds of groundwater in Canada is stored in these types of rock formations, the Geological Survey of Canada identified their behaviour as one of the most significant groundwater knowledge gaps in Canada. These groundwater stores (aquifers) are influenced by geology, hydrology, and climate as well as human activities, policies, and regulations. Though tools exist for examining, for example, how much water can be taken out of an aquifer, or its vulnerability to pollution, none of these tools adequately incorporate the relationships between all of the factors that affect an aquifer. Consequently, these tools cannot provide a complete picture of aquifer behaviour. Given how many Canadians and industries rely on groundwater, our lack of knowledge of groundwater in fractured rock, and our changing environment, there is a critical need to develop better, integrated, more effective groundwater management tools and strategies. Network models provide an innovative and powerful approach to study and measure complex systems such as an aquifer. They are based on wiring diagrams that mathematically describe interactions (links) between the elements (nodes) that make up a network. This approach has emerged over the last 15 years because the digital revolution has enabled economical collection, organization, sharing, and storage of vast amounts of data. The goal of this research program is to use a network-based approach to establish the relationships (linkages) governing how and where particles (representing pathogens) move in fractured aquifers. These linkages will form the basis for an aquifer network model, which will be used to explore how multiple stresses, threats, hazards, and management scenarios affect potential aquifer contamination. This innovative network model will provide greater insight towards aquifer behaviour in order to provide practitioners with a better means to assess the vulnerability and resilience of fractured rock aquifers to pathogen contamination, the knowledge required for developing sustainable aquifer management plans, and the science needed to develop effective policy. Over the next five years, the proposed research program will train 3 Ph.D., 4 M.A.Sc. and 5 UG students. Ultimately, the long-term objective of the proposed research program is to develop a fully integrated understanding of fractured aquifer behaviour by using the theory of network science to investigate the connections within and between the physical, social, and political systems that collectively govern aquifer behaviour.